The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics (응용통계연구)

The Korean Statistical Society (한국통계학회)
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A study on methods for population prediction involving future uncertainty

미래 불확실성을 내포하는 인구 예측 방법 연구

  • Jinho Oh (Department of Mathematical Sciences, Hanbat National University)
  • 오진호 (국립한밭대학교 수리과학과)
  • Received : 2024.01.29
  • Accepted : 2024.04.19
  • Published : 2024.12.31
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Abstract

Future uncertainty means that future results or phenomena cannot be accurately predicted. Since deterministic population projection based on such future uncertainty has clear limitations, so many advanced population research institutes and international organizations have emphasized the importance of probabilistic population prediction. It also presents probabilistic predictions in the research areas of climate, process, precipitation, and weather. However, the KOSTAT and various organizations in korea are only in scenario-based deterministic population projection, and only the need for probabilistic population prediction is raised. Therefore, this paper points out that when future uncertainties exist, the limitations and problems of decisive population projection should be examined, and the future population should be examined with probabilistic population prediction, and the results are presented. As a result of the analysis, in terms of the probabilistic confidence interval (5th quartile, 95th quartile), 5,106 to 51.2 million people in 2025, 5,053 to 5,082 million in 2030, 4,829 to 4,8 million in 2040, 4,425 to 45,5 million in 2050, and the last forecast, in 2062, the number below 40 million, is expected to be 37.33 to 33.3 million, and the rapid population deceleration over 33 years was the biggest factor rapidly decline in the fertility rate.

미래 불확실성은 미래에 나타날 결과나 현상에 대해 정확히 예측할 수 없음을 의미한다. 이런 미래 불확실성에 따른 결정론적 인구추계는 한계점이 분명하여 여러 선진 인구연구소나 국제기구에서는 확률론적 인구추계의 중요성을 거듭 강조해오고 있다. 또한 기후, 공정, 강수량, 기상 분야에서 확률적 예측을 제시하고 있다. 하지만 우리나라 통계청과 각종 기관에서는 시나리오 기반 결정론적 인구추계에 머물고 있고, 확률론적 인구예측의 필요성만 제기하고 있는 실정이다. 이에 본 논문은 미래 불확실성이 존재할 때 결정적 인구추계의 한계점과 문제점을 살펴보고, 미래 인구를 확률적 인구예측으로 살펴보아야하는 점을 지적하고 이에 대한 결과를 제시한다. 분석결과 확률적 신뢰구간(5th 분위수, 95th분위수) 관점에서 2025년은 5,106~5,120만 명, 2030년 5,053~5,082만 명, 2040년 4,829~4,885만 명, 2050년 4,425~4,505만 명, 그리고 예측 마지막 시점인 2062년은 4천만 명 아래 수준인 3,733~3,830만 명으로 예상되며, 33개년 동안 빠른 인구 감소는 지속적인 출산율 하락이 가장 큰 요인으로 나타났다.

Keywords

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