한국수자원학회논문집 (Journal of Korea Water Resources Association)

  • 제56권11호
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  • Pages.751-764
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  • 2023
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  • 2799-8746(pISSN)
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  • 2799-8754(eISSN)
한국수자원학회 (Korea Water Resources Association)
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침수유발 강우량을 이용한 강원특별자치도 호우특보 기준에 관한 연구

The study of heavy rain warning in Gangwon State using threshold rainfall

  • 이현지 (강원대학교 도시환경재난관리전공) ;
  • 강동호 (강원대학교 AI 기후재난기술융합연구소) ;
  • 이익상 ((주)동서엔지니어링) ;
  • 김병식 (강원대학교 AI소프트웨어학과/방재전문대학원)
  • Lee, Hyeonjia (Department of Urban Environmental & Disaster Management, Kangwon National University) ;
  • Kang, Donghob (AI for Climate & Disaster Management Center, Kangwon National University) ;
  • Lee, Iksangc (DONGSEO Engineering) ;
  • Kim, Byungsikd (Department of Artificial Intelligence & Software/Graduate School of Disaster Prevention, Kangwon National University)
  • 투고 : 2023.10.17
  • 심사 : 2023.10.30
  • 발행 : 2023.11.30
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초록

강원특별자치도는 태백산맥을 중심으로 지방에 따라 기후 특성이 매우 다르며, 국지성 호우가 빈번하게 발생하는 지역이다. 호우재해는 발생 시간이 짧고, 시공간적 변동성이 매우 커 많은 인명 및 재산피해를 유발한다. 최근 10년(2012~2021)간 강원지역 호우피해 발생 횟수는 28건이고, 평균 발생 피해액은 456억 원가량으로 집계되었다. 호우재해를 저감하기 위해선 지역단위의 재난관리 방안을 수립해야 한다. 특히나 현재 운영 중인 호우특보 기준은 획일화되어 지역 특성을 고려하지 못하는 한계가 있다. 이에 본 연구는 강원특별자치도에 위치한 특보구역을 대상으로 침수유발 강우량을 고려한 호우특보 기준을 제안하고자 한다. 특보구역별 침수유발 강우량 대푯값 분석 결과 평균값이 호우특보 발령 기준과 유사했고, 이를 본 연구의 호우특보 기준으로 선정하였다. 호우특보 기준 검토를 위한 강우사상으로 2019년 태풍 미탁, 2020년 태풍 마이삭과 하이선, 2023년 태풍 카눈 강우사상을 적용했고, Hit Rate 정확도 검증 결과 강릉평지 72%, 원주 98%로 본 연구는 실제 특보를 잘 반영함을 확인했다. 본 연구의 호우특보 기준은 위기경보 단계(관심, 주의, 경계, 심각)와 위계가 동일하여 선제적 호우재해 대응이 가능할 것으로 판단된다. 본 연구 결과는 향후 호우재해 대응의 획일적 의사결정 시스템을 보완하고, 이를 토대로 지역별 재해위험성을 고려한 호우특보 기준으로 활용될 수 있을 것으로 사료된다.

Gangwon State is centered on the Taebaek Mountains with very different climate characteristics depending on the region, and localized heavy rainfall is a frequent occurrence. Heavy rain disasters have a short duration and high spatial and temporal variability, causing many casualties and property damage. In the last 10 years (2012~2021), the number of heavy rain disasters in Gangwon State was 28, with an average cost of 45.6 billion won. To reduce heavy rain disasters, it is necessary to establish a disaster management plan at the local level. In particular, the current criteria for heavy rain warnings are uniform and do not consider local characteristics. Therefore, this study aims to propose a heavy rainfall warning criteria that considers the threshold rainfall for the advisory areas located in Gangwon State. As a result of analyzing the representative value of threshold rainfall by advisory area, the Mean value was similar to the criteria for issuing a heavy rain warning, and it was selected as the criteria for a heavy rain warning in this study. The rainfall events of Typhoon Mitag in 2019, Typhoons Maysak and Haishen in 2020, and Typhoon Khanun in 2023 were applied as rainfall events to review the criteria for heavy rainfall warnings, as a result of Hit Rate accuracy verification, this study reflects the actual warning well with 72% in Gangneung Plain and 98% in Wonju. The criteria for heavy rain warnings in this study are the same as the crisis warning stages (Attention, Caution, Alert, and Danger), which are considered to be possible for preemptive rain disaster response. The results of this study are expected to complement the uniform decision-making system for responding to heavy rain disasters in the future and can be used as a basis for heavy rain warnings that consider disaster risk by region.

키워드

과제정보

이 연구는 행정안전부 재난안전 공동연구 기술개발 사업(2022-MOIS63-002(RS-2022-ND641012))의 지원을 받아 수행되었습니다.

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