Korea Trade Review (무역학회지)

Korea Trade Research Association (한국무역학회)
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The Dynamic Trade Effect of Korea's Free Trade Agreements: Extensive Margins of Trade

한국 자유무역협정의 동태적 교역효과 분석: 무역외연효과를 중심으로

  • 정재욱 (서강대학교 국제대학원)
  • Received : 2023.01.07
  • Accepted : 2023.02.27
  • Published : 2023.02.28
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Abstract

This paper studies how the free trade agreements (FTAs) have changed the dynamics of Korea's imports since 1996. Specifically, the dynamic regression analysis on the transition of trade liberalization discovers three main findings: (1) import values of Korea increase gradually as FTAs enter into force; (2) the extensive margins of import work as a major source of the trade effect in the transition episode of FTAs; (3) the extensive margins of import tend to increase even before FTAs enter into force. This noble forward-looking effect suggests some potential foreign exporters or exporting goods enter the Korean market, especially when FTAs negotiation starts. It supports the early entry behavior of potential exporters found in recent international trade literature.

본 논문은 2021년 말까지 발효된 한국의 자유무역협정(FTA) 총 17건의 동태적 교역효과를 확인하기 위해 1996년부터 2021년까지 한국의 HS 10단위 상품 및 국가별 수입액 패널자료를 계량분석하였다. FTA의 협상개시, 협상타결 및 서명, 비준 및 발효 등의 무역정책 전환기(transition period)동안 동태적 교역효과를 분석한 결과, 협정의 발효 시점에 수입이 증가하는 효과는 뚜렷하며 특히, 새로운 교역상품의 등장에 따른 무역외연효과(extensive margin)가 중요한 역할을 하였다. 또한, 외연효과는 FTA의 발효에 따라 관세가 인하되기 이전부터 증가하는 추세를 보였다. 이는 최근 선행연구에서 확인된 잠재적 수출기업의 수출시장 조기진입현상을 뒷받침하는 중요한 결과이다. 특히, 이런 선행효과는 FTA 협상 개시 이후에 뚜렷하게 나타나, 정책 불확실성의 감소와 시장 조기진입현상의 관련성을 시사한다.

Keywords

Acknowledgement

본 논문은 서강대학교 신진연구지원사업의 연구비 지원을 받아 수행된 연구임.

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