무역학회지 (Korea Trade Review)

한국무역학회 (Korea Trade Research Association)
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대러 에너지 제재의 효과성에 대한 연구 -석유가스 부문을 중심으로

A Study on the Effectiveness of Sanctions against Russian Energy Sector-Focusing on the Oil and Gas Sector

  • 권원순 (한국외국어대학교 경제학부) ;
  • 고주영 (한국외국어대학교 경제경영연구소)
  • 투고 : 2023.01.20
  • 심사 : 2023.02.23
  • 발행 : 2023.02.28
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초록

미국과 EU는 우크라이나 사태에 대응하여 러시아의 에너지 부문을 대상으로 제재하고 있다. 특히 대러 경제제재는 러시아의 석유가스 부문에 대한 에너지 제재의 성격을 가지고 있다. 미국과 EU는 모두 제재 부과국이지만, 미국은 천연가스 순수출국인 반면, 대부분의 EU 회원국들은 러시아에 대한 의존도가 높다는 근본적인 차이점이 존재한다. 따라서 미국과 EU의 대러 에너지 제재는 미국을 포함한 기타 석유가스 수출국들이 EU 에너지 시장에서 러시아를 대체할 공급을 확보할 수 있는 경우에 그 효과성이 보장될 수 있다. 즉, 주요 석유가스 수출국들의 러시아 대체 가능성은 대러 에너지 제재의 효과성을 좌우하는 중요한 결정 요인이다. 본 연구는 석유가스 수출국들의 러시아 대체 가능성 평가를 통해 대러 에너지 제재의 효과성을 살펴본다. 본 연구의 분석 결과, 대부분의 석유가스 수출국들의 추가 생산 역량과 인프라 부족 문제로 인해 단기에 러시아를 대체하는 석유가스의 확보는 어려울 것으로 평가되며, 이에따라 미국과 EU의 대러 에너지 제재는 그 효과성이 불분명한 것으로 판단된다. 우크라이나 사태의 해결을 위해서는 직접적인 제재보다 외교 등 다른 수단이 활용되어야 할 것이다.

The US and EU have imposed energy sanctions on the Russian oil and gas sector in response to the Ukraine crisis. One of the key measures is to cut oil and gas imports from Russia. The US and EU are both the senders of sanctions against Russia. However, there is a fundamental difference between them. While the US is the net oil and gas exporter, most EU member states are heavily dependent on Russian oil and gas. If the US and other major oil and gas exporting countries can replace Russia in the EU energy market, the effectiveness of energy sanctions against Russia can be guaranteed. Our result shows that it is difficult for the major oil and gas exporters to fully replace Russia in the short run because of the lack of additional production capacity and infrastructure. We conclude that the US and EU's energy sanctions against Russia can not guarantee its effectiveness. We argue that other measures, such as diplomacy, should be taken to settle the conflicts in Ukraine.

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