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A Feasibility Study on the Estimation of a Ship's Susceptibility Based on the Effectiveness of its Anti-Air Defense Systems

함정 대공방어시스템의 효과도를 활용한 피격성 추정 가능성 연구

  • GeonHui Lee (Ship Infra-Red Signature Center, Dong-Eui University) ;
  • SeokTae Yoon (Ship Infra-Red Signature Center, Dong-Eui University) ;
  • YongJin Cho (Naval Architecture and Ocean Engineering, Dong-Eui University)
  • 이건희 (동의대학교 함정적외선신호연구소) ;
  • 윤석태 (동의대학교 함정적외선신호연구소) ;
  • 조용진 (동의대학교 조선해양공학과)
  • Received : 2022.10.04
  • Accepted : 2023.01.10
  • Published : 2023.02.20

Abstract

Recently, the increased use of anti-ship guided missiles, a weapon system that detects and attacks targets in naval engagement, has come to pose a major threat to the survivability of ships. In order to improve the survivability of ships in response to such anti-ship guided missiles, many studies of means to counteract them have been conducted in militarily advanced countries. The integrated survivability of a ship can be largely divided into susceptibility, vulnerability, and recoverability, and is expressed as the conditional probability, if the ship is hit, of damage and recovery. However, as research on susceptibility is a major military secret of each country, access to it is very limited and there are few publicly available data. Therefore, in this study, a possibility of estimating the susceptibility of ships using an anti-air defense system corresponding to anti-ship guided missiles was reviewed. To this, scenarios during engagement, weapon systems mounted to counter threats, and maximum detection/battle range according to the operational situation of the defense weapon system were defined. In addition, the effectiveness of the anti-air defense system and susceptibility was calculated based on the performance of the weapon system, the crew's ability to operate the weapon system, and the detection probability of the detection/defense system. To evaluate the susceptibility estimation feasibility, the sensitivity of the detailed variables was reviewed, and the usefulness of the established process was confirmed through sensitivity analysis.

Keywords

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