한국건축시공학회지 (Journal of the Korea Institute of Building Construction)

  • 제23권1호
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  • Pages.103-111
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  • 2023
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  • 1598-2033(pISSN)
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  • 2233-5706(eISSN)
한국건축시공학회 (The Korean Institute of Building Construction)
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적응형 뉴로-퍼지(ANFIS)를 이용한 건축공사비 예측

Prediction of Building Construction Project Costs Using Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System(ANFIS)

  • Yun, Seok-Heon (Department of Architectural Engineering, GyeongSang National University) ;
  • Park, U-Yeol (Department of Architectural Engineering, Andong National University)
  • 투고 : 2022.12.26
  • 심사 : 2023.01.12
  • 발행 : 2023.02.20
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초록

건설 프로젝트의 초기단계에서 공사비를 정확하게 예측하는 것은 프로젝트를 성공적으로 수행하기 위해 매우 중요하다. 본 연구에서는 ANFIS 모델을 활용하여 건설프로젝트의 초기단계에 건축공사비를 예측할 수 있는 모델을 제시하였다. 모델의 활용도를 높이기 위해 공개된 공사비 데이터를 활용하였으며 프로젝트 초기단계의 제한된 정보를 바탕으로 예측할 수 있는 모델을 제시하고자 하였다. ANFIS와 관련된 기존 연구를 분석하여 최근의 동향을 파악하였으며 ANFIS의 기본 구조를 고찰한 후 건축공사비 예측을 위한 ANFIS 모델을 제시하였다. ANFIS의 모델의 소속함수의 종류와 개수에 따라 달라지는 예측 성능을 분석하여 가장 성능이 우수한 모델을 제시하였으며, 대표적인 기계학습 모델의 예측 정확도와 비교분석하였다. 적용결과 ANFIS 모델을 다른 기계학습 모델과 비교한 결과 동등 이상으로 성능을 나타내 프로젝트 초기단계 공사비 예측에 적용 가능할 것으로 판단된다.

Accurate cost estimation in the early stages of a construction project is critical to the successful execution of the project. In this study, an ANFIS model was presented to predict construction costs in the early stages of a construction project. To increase the usability of the model, open construction cost data was used, and a model using limited information in the early stage of the project was presented. We analyzed existing studies related to ANFIS to identify recent trends, and after reviewing the basic structure of ANFIS, presented an ANFIS model for predicting conceptual construction costs. The variation in prediction performance depending on the type and number of membership functions of the ANFIS model was analyzed, the model with the best performance was presented, and the prediction accuracy of representative machine learning models was compared and analyzed. Through comparing the ANFIS model with other machine learning models, it was found to show equal or better performance, and it is concluded that it can be applied to predicting construction costs in the early stage of a project.

키워드

과제정보

This work was supported by a Research Grant of Andong National University

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