The Journal of the Convergence on Culture Technology (문화기술의 융합)

The International Promotion Agency of Culture Technology (국제문화기술진흥원)
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Prospects of cross-strait relaions after the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China

중국공산당 제20차 전국대표대회 이후 양안관계 전망

  • Wonkon, Kim (Dept. of Chinese Studies, Namseoul Univ)
  • 김원곤 (남서울대학교 중국학과)
  • Received : 2022.11.28
  • Accepted : 2023.01.09
  • Published : 2023.01.31
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Abstract

Recently, China-Taiwan relations are facing a crisis, and at the same time, the U.S.-China relationship and the structure of Northeast Asia are greatly shaken, so we should pay attention to changes in cross-strait relations. This study aims to predict how cross-strait relations will change after the party convention by analyzing Xi Jinping's Taiwan policy, focusing on the "Political Report" of the 20th party convention and the content analysis of leadership personnel. The results of the study are as follows. First, as the amendment to the party constitution announced after the closing of the party convention stipulates the possibility of armed invasion, Xi Jinping will implement a tough Taiwan policy emphasizing unification. Second, strategic competition with the United States will continue to intensify in the future when analyzing the contents of Chapters 2, 11, 13, and 14 of the "Political Reporting" and the personnel management of diplomatic and security leadership. As a result, cross-strait relations are expected to show instability for a considerable period of time. Third, at a time when Taiwan rejects the unification plan of "one country, two systems" and the tendency to de-Chineseize is strengthening, there is a possibility that legislation or specific enforcement ordinances will be enacted to strengthen the existing "Anti-Secession Law." Fourth, it is expected that strong and warm two-sided strategies will be used together, such as taking a strong response to external forces interfering with the Taiwan issue and Taiwan independence forces, and using incentives for the Kuomintang(KMT) and Taiwanese who are friendly to unification.

최근 중국과 대만관계가 위기를 맞으며 미중관계 및 동북아 지역 구도도 크게 흔들리고 있기에 우리는 양안관계의 변화에 주목해야 한다. 이 연구는 제20차 당대회의 '정치 보고'와 지도부 인사에 대한 내용 분석을 중심으로 시진핑의 대만정책을 분석함으로써 양안관계가 당대회 이후 어떻게 변화할 것인지 전망하고자 한다. 연구결과는 다음과같다. 첫째, 당대회 폐막 후 발표한 당헌 수정안에 무력침공의 가능성을 명기했듯이, 시진핑은 통일에 방점을 둔 강경한 대만정책을 펼칠 것이다. 둘째, '정치 보고'의 제2장, 11장, 13장, 14장 내용과 외교·안보 지도부 인사를 분석할 때 향후 미국과의 전략적 경쟁은 계속 심화될 것이다. 이에 따라 양안관계도 상당 기간 불안정성을 보일 것으로 예상된다. 셋째, 대만이 '일국양제'라는 통일방안을 거부하고 탈중국화 경향이 강화되고 있는 상황에서 앞으로 기존의 '반국가분열법'을 세부적으로 강화하는 법제화나 구체적인 시행령이 제정될 가능성이 있다. 넷째, 대만문제에 간섭하는 외부세력과 대만독립 세력에게는 강경한 대응을 할 것이고, 통일에 우호적인 국민당과 대만인들에게는 유인책을 구사하는 등 강온 양면전략이 함께 구사될 것으로 전망된다.

Keywords

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