해양환경안전학회지 (Journal of the Korean Society of Marine Environment & Safety)

  • 제29권7호
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  • Pages.802-811
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  • 2023
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  • 1229-3431(pISSN)
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  • 2287-3341(eISSN)
해양환경안전학회 (The Korean Society of Marine Environment and safety)
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국내 어업활동보호구역 주요 어종의 종분포 변화 예측

Prediction of Species Distribution Changes for Key Fish Species in Fishing Activity Protected Areas in Korea

  • 석형주 (해양생태기술연구소 위해성평가실) ;
  • 이창헌 (해양생태기술연구소 해양공간연구소) ;
  • 황철희 (해양생태기술연구소 사업 총괄 본부) ;
  • 김영윤 (해양생태기술연구소 R&D 총괄 본부) ;
  • 김대선 (한국해양과학기술원 해양법.정책연구소) ;
  • 이문숙 (한국해양과학기술원 해양법.정책연구소)
  • Hyeong Ju Seok (Risk Assessment Team, Marine Eco-technology Institute (MEI)) ;
  • Chang Hun Lee (Marine Spatial Research Institute, Marine Eco-technology Institute (MEI)) ;
  • Choul-Hee Hwang (Business Headquarters, Marine Eco-technology Institute (MEI)) ;
  • Young Ryun Kim (Research and Development Headquarters, Marine Eco-technology Institute (MEI)) ;
  • Daesun Kim (Ocean Law and Policy Institute, Korea Institute of Ocean Science and Technology(KIOST)) ;
  • Moon Suk Lee (Ocean Policy Research Center, Korea Institute of Ocean Science and Technology(KIOST))
  • 투고 : 2023.11.27
  • 심사 : 2023.12.29
  • 발행 : 2023.12.31
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초록

해양공간계획(Marine spatial planning)은 해양의 합리적인 이용과 지속 가능한 해양 공간 활용을 위한 중요한 요소이다. 특히 어업활동 보호구역은 지속 가능한 어업을 위한 핵심 용도구역으로, 해양공간계획 경계 내에서 약 45.6%를 차지한다. 그러나, 현재 어업활동보호구역의 지정과 평가는 미래 수요와 잠재적 가치를 충분히 반영하지 못하고 있으며, 중장기 계획 수립을 위한 보다 합리적인 평가 방법과 예측 도구가 필요한 상황이다. 이러한 문제를 해결하기 위해, 본 연구는 어업활동보호구역 내 주요 어종인 고등어, 갈치, 멸치, 참조기를 대상으로 어종 분포 예측을 시도하고, 현재 용도구역과의 비교를 통해 예측 도구의 가능성을 평가하였다. 한편, IPCC 6차 기후변화 시나리오(SSP1-2.6 및 SSP5-8.5)를 적용한 종분포 모델(MaxEnt)을 사용하여 미래 기후변화에 따른 어종의 이동 및 분포 변화를 분석한 결과, 고등어, 갈치, 참조기의 분포 면적은 현재보다 약 28~86% 증가했으나, 멸치의 분포 면적은 약 6~11% 감소했다. 이 결과를 바탕으로 주요 4종의 종풍부도 지도를 작성하였으며, 해양공간계획 경계 내에서 '높음'으로 평가된 종풍부도 해역과 어업활동보호구역이 중복되는 비율은 약 15%, SSP1-2.6 시나리오에서 21%, SSP5-8.5 시나리오에서 34%로 증가하였다. 연구 결과는 향후 용도구역 평가나 유보구역 변경 시 과학적 근거로 활용될 수 있으며, 어종의 현재 종분포와 기후변화에 따른 분포 예측을 통해 현재 용도구역 평가의 한계를 보완하고, 지속 가능한 유용 해양 자원의 이용을 위한 계획 수립에 기여할 것으로 판단된다.

Marine spatial planning (MSP) is a crucial element for rational allocation and sustainable use of marine areas. Particularly, Fishing Activity Protected Areas constitute essential zones accounting for 45.6% designated for sustainable fishing activities. However, the current assessment of these zones does not adequately consider future demands and potential values, necessitating appropriate evaluation methods and predictive tools for long-term planning. In this study, we selected key fish species (Scomber japonicus, Trichiurus lepturus, Engraulis japonicus, and Larimichthys polyactis) within the Fishing Activity Protected Area to predict their distribution and compare it with the current designated zones for evaluating the ability of the prediction tool. Employing the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 6th Assessment Report scenarios (SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5), we used species distribution models (such as MaxEnt) to assess the movement and distribution changes of these species owing to future variations. The results indicated a 30-50% increase in the distribution area of S. japonicus, T. lepturus, and L. polyactis, whereas the distribution area of E. japonicus decreased by approximately 6-11%. Based on these results, a species richness map for the four key species was created. Within the marine spatial planning boundaries, the overlap between areas rated "high" in species richness and the Fishing Activity Protected Area was approximately 15%, increasing to 21% under the RCP 2.6 scenario and 34% under the RCP 8.5 scenario. These findings can serve as scientific evidence for future evaluations of use zones or changes in reserve areas. The current and predicted distributions of species owing to climate change can address the limitations of current use zone evaluations and contribute to the development of plans for sustainable and beneficial use of marine resources.

키워드

과제정보

이 논문은 2023년 해양수산부 재원으로 해양수산과학기술진흥원의 지원을 받아 수행된 연구이다(20220431, 해양공간 정책시뮬레이터 기술 개발).

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