The Journal of the Convergence on Culture Technology (문화기술의 융합)

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The Effect of Bank Loans on Housing Prices in Korea

은행 대출이 주택가격에 미치는 영향

  • Han, Myung-Hoon (Division of Business Administration and Accounting, Kangwon National Univ)
  • 한명훈 (강원대학교 산학협력단(경영회계학부))
  • Received : 2022.05.26
  • Accepted : 2022.07.02
  • Published : 2022.07.31
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Abstract

This study analyzed the effect of bank loans on housing prices, classified bank loans into bank total loans, household loans, and real estate mortgage loans, and analyzed housing prices by dividing them into national-level, regional-level, and Seoul-level housing prices. The main analysis results are as follows. First, it was found that the increase in total bank loans significantly increased housing prices across the national-level, regional-level and Seoul-level. Second, it was found that household loans had a positive effect on regional-level housing prices, but were not statistically significant. In addition, the effect of bank loans on regional-level housing prices was found to be relatively small compared to the effect on national-level housing prices. Third, it was found that there was a difference in the effect of bank loans on regional-level housing prices and Seoul-level housing prices. Fourth, inflation and bank total loans had a significant positive effect on regional-level housing prices with a lag in the first quarter, and short-term interest rates had a significant negative effect on Seoul-level housing prices with a lag in the first quarter. Overall, it was found that the effect of bank loans on housing prices had a positive effect about twice that of Seoul-level rather than regional-level.

본 연구는 은행 대출이 주택가격에 미치는 영향을 분석하였으며, 은행 대출을 은행 총대출금, 가계대출금, 부동산담보대출금으로 구분하였고, 주택가격을 전국, 지방, 서울 주택가격으로 구분하여 분석하였다. 주요한 분석 결과는 다음과 같다. 첫째, 은행 총대출금의 증가는 전국, 지방, 서울 주택가격을 유의하게 상승시키는 것으로 나타났다. 둘째, 가계대출금은 지방 주택가격에 양(+)의 영향을 미치지만 통계적으로 유의하지는 않은 것으로 나타났다. 그리고 은행 대출이 지방 주택가격에 미치는 영향은 전국 주택가격에 미치는 영향에 비해서는 상대적으로 작은 것으로 나타났다. 셋째, 은행 대출이 지방 주택가격과 서울 주택가격에 미치는 영향은 차이가 있는 것으로 나타났다. 넷째, 인플레이션과 은행 총대출은 1분기의 시차를 가지고 지방 주택가격에 유의한 양(+)의 영향을 미쳤으며, 단기금리는 1분기의 시차를 가지고 서울 주택가격에 유의한 음(-)의 영향을 미쳤다. 전체적으로는 은행 대출이 주택가격에 미치는 영향이 지방보다는 서울에 약 2배 정도 더 큰 양(+)의 영향을 미치는 것으로 나타났다.

Keywords

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