자원ㆍ환경경제연구 (Environmental and Resource Economics Review)

한국자원경제학회 (Korean Resource Economics Association)
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재생에너지 발전 확대에 따른 전력계통한계가격의 변화

The Impact of Renewable Energy Generation on the Level and Volatility of Electricity Price: The Case of Korea

  • 투고 : 2022.01.17
  • 심사 : 2022.03.24
  • 발행 : 2022.06.30
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초록

이 논문은 우리나라의 재생에너지 발전이 전력계통한계가격(System Marginal Price: SMP)에 미치는 영향을 실증적으로 분석한다. 2016~2020년 시간별 데이터를 사용하여 일일 평균, 피크 시간대, 피크 외 시간대의 SMP에 대해 ARX-GARCHX 모형으로 추정한 결과 총부하, 가스도입가격과 태양광 및 풍력 발전이 중요 결정요인으로 작용하고 있고, 특히 태양광 및 풍력 발전이 증가함에 따라 SMP는 하락하는 급전순위효과(merit order effect)가 존재하는 것을 확인하였다. 특히, 태양광 발전량의 1% 증가는 SMP 수준을 0.005%가량 하락시킬 뿐만 아니라 변동성을 증가시키는 것으로 나타났다. 이러한 결과는 재생에너지 발전이 증가함에 따라 SMP가 하락하여 기존 발전소의 수익성 감소와 재생에너지 투자 감소로 이어질 수 있음을 시사하고, 신재생에너지 보조금이 소매 부분 전기요금에 부담을 가중하더라도 계통한계가격이 낮아져서 이를 상쇄할 수 있음을 의미한다.

This paper empirically analyzes the effect of renewable electricity generation on the System Marginal Price (SMP) in Korea. Using an ARX-GARCHX model with hourly data from 2016 to 2020, we evaluate SMP determinants and merit order effects. As a result, we find that solar and wind power, as well as gas price and total load, play a critical role in the SMP. In particular, solar power reduces the SMP level but raises volatility during peak and off-peak periods. This result implies that SMP may fall as renewable electricity generation increases, leading to a decrease in the profitability of existing power plants and investment in renewables. On the other hand, even if the subsidy of renewable energy increases the burden on the SMP, it can be offset by the merit order effect, which lowers the SMP.

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과제정보

이 논문은 2021년 대한민국 교육부와 한국연구재단의 지원(NRF-2021S1A5A2A01060703)과 홍익대학교 2022년 학술진흥연구비 지원을 받아 연구하게 되었음.

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