Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management (한국건설관리학회논문집)

Korea Institute of Construction Engineering and Management (한국건설관리학회)
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The Analysis and Forecasting Model for Maintenance Costs Considering Elapsed Years of Old Long-Term Public Rental Housing

노후 장기공공임대주택의 경과 연수별 유지관리비 분석 및 예측 모형

  • Jung, Yong-Chan (Department of Architectural Engineering, University of Seoul) ;
  • Jin, Zheng-Xun (Korea Institute of Civil Engineering and Building Technology) ;
  • Hyun, Chang-Taek (Department of Architectural Engineering, University of Seoul) ;
  • Lee, Sanghoon (Department of Architectural Engineering, University of Seoul)
  • 정용찬 (서울시립대학교 건축공학과) ;
  • 김정훈 (한국건설기술연구원) ;
  • 현창택 (서울시립대학교 건축공학과) ;
  • 이상훈 (서울시립대학교 건축공학과)
  • Received : 2022.02.16
  • Accepted : 2022.04.19
  • Published : 2022.05.31
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Abstract

The number of public rental housing has increased according to the government's 「Housing Welfare Roadmap (2017)」, and facility maintenance costs for the demand of improvement of performance and residential standards due to the aging of long-term public housing are significantly increasing. Consequently, the financial burden of public housing rental business for maintaining stocked housing is aggravated. However, there is a lack of objective data to analyze the size of the maintenance costs that are executed by the type of repair work, and the elapsed years of the aged long-term public rental housing. This study analyzes the execution status of 33 long-term public rental housing complexes located in Seoul for 14 to 28 years of elapsed years based on the data of maintenance costs. In addition, this study proposes a model to predict the maintenance costs by elapsed years by dividing 'Long-term Repair Plan Work and Government-Funded Project [Y1]', 'Planned Repair Work and General & Unplanned Repair Work [Y2]', and 'Total maintenance costs [Y3]'. It is intended to be used as basic data for the establishment of the maintenance plan at the stage of setting up the budget and the establishment of the sustainable operation plan for public rental housing

정부의 주거복지 로드맵(2017)에 따른 공공임대주택의 지속적인 증가, 장기공공임대주택의 노후화에 따른 시설 성능 개선 및 주거수준 향상 요구 등을 위한 시설물 유지관리비가 큰 폭으로 증가하여 재고주택 유지를 위한 공공임대사업자의 재정부담이 가중되고 있다. 그러나, 현재까지 노후 장기공공임대주택의 운영과정에서 시설물 수선종류 공사별, 내용연수 기간 경과 연수별로 집행되는 유지관리비 규모를 분석하는 객관적인 자료가 부족한 실정이다. 본 연구는 서울시에 위치한 33개 장기공공임대주택의 유지관리비 실적 자료를 바탕으로 경과 연수 14년에서 28년 기간의 집행 현황을 분석하였다. 또한, 경과 연수별 유지관리비를 '장기수선계획공사 및 국비지원사업[Y1]', '계획수선공사 및 일반수선공사[Y2]', '총 유지관리비[Y3]'로 구분하여 예측 모형을 제안하였다. 본 연구는 공공임대사업자가 예산수립 단계에서 유지관리계획 수립과 공공임대주택의 지속 가능한 운영 계획수립을 위한 기초자료로 활용 가능할 것으로 판단된다.

Keywords

References

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