한국수자원학회논문집 (Journal of Korea Water Resources Association)

  • 제55권3호
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  • Pages.205-215
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  • 2022
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  • 2799-8746(pISSN)
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  • 2799-8754(eISSN)
한국수자원학회 (Korea Water Resources Association)
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용담댐 기존운영에 대한 의사결정중심 기후변화 영향 평가

A decision-centric impact assessment of operational performance of the Yongdam Dam, South Korea

  • 김대하 (전북대학교 토목환경자원에너지공학부) ;
  • 김은희 (전북대학교 토목환경자원에너지공학부) ;
  • 이승철 (전북대학교 토목환경자원에너지공학부) ;
  • 김은지 (전북대학교 토목환경자원에너지공학부) ;
  • 신준 (전북대학교 토목환경자원에너지공학부)
  • Kim, Daeha (Department of Civil Engineering, Jeonbuk National University) ;
  • Kim, Eunhee (Department of Civil Engineering, Jeonbuk National University) ;
  • Lee, Seung Cheol (Department of Civil Engineering, Jeonbuk National University) ;
  • Kim, Eunji (Department of Civil Engineering, Jeonbuk National University) ;
  • Shin, June (Department of Civil Engineering, Jeonbuk National University)
  • 투고 : 2021.12.21
  • 심사 : 2022.02.03
  • 발행 : 2022.03.31
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초록

대기온실가스 증가로 인해 전지구 평균기온은 이미 1.0℃ 이상 상승했고 폭염, 가뭄, 홍수 등 극한 기상현상의 빈도는 점점 더 높아질 것으로 전망되고 있다. 본 연구에서는 전북·충청지역의 이·치수안전도 확보에 큰 역할을 하고 있는 용담댐의 기존 운영방식이 기후변화에 얼마나 취약한 지 의사결정 지표를 중심으로 평가하였다. 현실적인 기후 스트레스 테스트를 위해 GR6J 강우-유출 모형, Random Forests 댐운영 모형을 관측자료에 적합시켰고 추계학적 기법으로 생성된 294개의 기후스트레스 시계열을 모형에 입력해 연최대일방류량, 저수량신뢰도, 공급신뢰도의 변화를 분석하였다. 그 결과 2021~2040년 기간 용담댐 저수량신뢰도는 과도한 수준으로 증가할 것으로 전망되었고 이에 반해 공급신뢰도의 증가는 저수량 신뢰도에 미치지 못할 것으로 나타났다. 평균강수량과 강수변동성의 증가로 20년 빈도 연최대방류량은 50%의 확률로 43% 증가할 것으로 나타났다. 용담댐의 기존운영방식은 저수량 확보에 과도하게 치중되어 있는 것으로 판단되며 이 운영이 지속될 경우 용담댐 하류지역의 홍수위험은 더 가중될 것으로 예상된다.

Amidst the global climate crisis, dam operation policies formulated under the stationary climate assumption could lead to unsatisfactory water management. In this work, we assessed status-quo performance of the Yongdam Dam in Korea under various climatic stresses in flood risk reduction and water supply reliability for 2021-2040. To this end, we employed a decision-centric framework equipped with a stochastic weather generator, a conceptual streamflow model, and a machine-learning reservoir operation rule. By imposing 294 climate perturbations to dam release simulations, we found that the current operation rule of the Yongdam dam could redundantly secure water storage, while inefficiently enhancing the supply reliability. On the other hand, flood risks were likely to increase substantially due to rising mean and variability of daily precipitation. Here, we argue that the current operation rules of the Yongdam Dam seem to be overly focused on securing water storage, and thus need to be adjusted to efficiently improve supply reliability and reduce flood risks in downstream areas.

키워드

과제정보

본 연구는 2021년도 전북녹색환경지원센터의 연구사업비 지원을 받아 수행되었습니다(Project No. 21-14-01-07-36). 이에 감사드립니다.

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