The Journal of The Korea Institute of Intelligent Transport Systems (한국ITS학회 논문지)

The Korea Institute of Intelligent Transport Systems (한국ITS학회)
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Leading, Coincident, Lagging INdicators to Analyze the Predictability of the Composite Regional Index Based on TCS Data

지역 경기종합지수 예측 가능성 검토를 위한 TCS 데이터 선행·동행·후행성 분석 연구

  • Kang, Youjeong (Dept. of Transportation Eng., Keimyung Univ.) ;
  • Hong, Jungyeol (Dept. of Transportation Eng., Keimyung Univ.) ;
  • Na, Jieun ;
  • Kim, Dongho (Dept. of Big data platform and data economy research,, Korea Transport Institute) ;
  • Cheon, Seunghun (Dept. of Big data platform and data economy research,, Korea Transport Institute)
  • 강유정 (계명대학교 교통공학과) ;
  • 홍정열 (계명대학교 교통공학과) ;
  • 나지은 (계명대학교 도시계획 및 교통공학 전공) ;
  • 김동호 (한국교통연구원 빅데이터 플랫폼.데이터 경제 연구팀) ;
  • 천승훈 (한국교통연구원 빅데이터 플랫폼.데이터 경제 연구팀)
  • Received : 2021.12.17
  • Accepted : 2022.01.28
  • Published : 2022.02.28
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Abstract

With the worldwide spread of African swine fever, interest in livestock epidemics has increased. Livestock transport vehicles are the main cause of the spread of livestock epidemics, but there are no empirical quarantine procedures and standards related to the mobility of livestock transport vehicles in South Korea. This study extracted the trajectory of livestock-related vehicles using the facility-visit history data from the Korea Animal Health Integrated System and the DTG (Digital Tachograph) data from the Korea Transportation Safety Authority. The results are presented as exposure indices aggregating the link-time occupancy of each vehicle. As a result, 274,519 livestock-related vehicle trajectories were extracted, and the exposure values by link and zone were derived quantitatively. This study highlights the need for prior monitoring of livestock transport vehicles and the establishment of post-disaster prevention policies.

최근 다양한 사회 경제 이슈가 사회적인 화두로 떠오르고 있으며, 지역 경제 상황을 빠르게 판단하고 정책을 수립하기 위한 경기종합지수의 중요성이 대두되고 있다. 이에 따라 해외 연구자들은 지역 경제활동과 밀접하게 연관된 실시간성 교통 빅데이터를 이용하여 빠른 경제 상황 진단과 맞춤형 정책 방향의 수립을 고려하고 있다. 본 연구의 주요 목적은 울산광역시를 기종점으로 하는 TCS 데이터를 여객·화물통행, 단거리·장거리통행으로 구분하고, 각각의 통행량을 이용하여 지역경기진단이 가능한 경기종합지수들을 선정한 후 각 지수들의 경기변동 특징인 선행, 동행, 후행성을 교차 상관함수(Cross-Correlation Functions) 분석을 통하여 정의하는데 있다. 연구 결과로부터 TCS 교통량의 추이와 상관관계가 높은 경기 종합지수들은 서비스업 생산지수, 도매 및 소매업, 숙박 및 음식점업 등으로 나타났다. 이 중 화물, 여객, 단거리 목적 통행은 도매 및 소매업, 숙박 및 음식점업에 대해 선행성을 가지는 것으로 도출되었다.

Keywords

Acknowledgement

본 연구는 2021년 추계학술대회에서 발표(2021. 10. 22)한 논문을 바탕으로 재작성 되었으며, 한국 교통연구원에서 지원한 "교통 빅데이터를 이용한 경기종합지수 작성 및 적용 가능성 평가" 연구과제의 일환으로 수행되었습니다.

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