Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management (한국건설관리학회논문집)

Korea Institute of Construction Engineering and Management (한국건설관리학회)
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Real Options Analysis for the Eco-Environment Area Project in Saemangeum

실물옵션을 활용한 새만금 환경생태용지사업 분석

  • Kim, Kyeongseok (Department of Civil & Environmental Engineering, Wonkwang University)
  • 김경석 (원광대학교 토목환경공학과)
  • Received : 2021.10.07
  • Accepted : 2021.10.22
  • Published : 2021.11.30
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Abstract

This study analyzed economic feasibility using the real options theory of the eco-environment area project in Saemangeum. I defined the main factors affecting project sales during the 30 years operation period. The real option-based analysis is proposed through the managerial flexibility by estimating the volatility of project sales using scenarios analysis method. The number of visitors, admission fee, leisure program fee, and O&M costs required for economic analysis of eco-environment park were analyzed by reviewing cases of similar eco-environment parks in Korea. The option value is calculated by assuming that the developers have an option right that can be abandoned. B/C is less than 1 and NPV is negative, so it is impossible to proceed with the project using the traditional economic analysis. The project value difference between NPV (-46.6 billion Won) and option value (28.1 billion Won) increased by 74.7 billion Won. Through this study, decision-makers of public institutions and private developers who plan eco-environment area projects will be able to use the real option technique proposed in this study.

본 연구는 새만금에 조성되는 환경생태용지사업의 실물옵션기법을 사용하여 경제성분석을 하였다. 30년 동안 운영하는 동안 수익에 영향을 주는 주요 요소들을 정의하였다. 수익의 변동성을 시나리오 분석방법으로 계산하여, 경영적 유연성을 적용할 수 있는 옵션 기반 분석방법을 제시하였다. 환경생태공원 경제성분석에 필요한 이용객수, 입장요금, 체험프로그램요금, 유지관리비용 등은 국내 유사한 환경생태공원의 사례를 분석하였다. 운영 중 포기할 수 있는 옵션권리를 가지는 것으로 가정하여 옵션가치를 계산하였다. B/C는 1미만의 값이 나오고, NPV는 음수로 나와 전통적인 경제성분석방법으로는 사업을 진행할 수가 없으나, 실물옵션분석으로 평가하면 사업의 가치가 상승하여 수익성을 확보할 수 있다. NPV(-466억원)과 옵션가치(281억원)의 가격차이 747억원의 가치상승이 발생하였다. 본 연구를 통해서 환경생태용지사업을 계획하려는 공공기관 및 민간사업자의 투자담당자는 본 연구에서 제시된 실물옵션기법을 활용하여 상황에 적절한 옵션을 선택하여 경제성분석을 할 수 있도록 도움을 줄 수 있을 것이다.

Keywords

Acknowledgement

이 연구는 한국연구재단의 지원을 받아 수행된 과제입니다(NRF-2019R1C1C1010332).

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