Journal of the Korean Society of Safety (한국안전학회지)

The Korean Society of Safety (한국안전학회)
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A Study on Bayesian Reliability Evaluation of IPM using Simple Information

단순 수명정보를 이용한 IPM의 베이지안 신뢰도 평가 연구

  • Jo, Dong Cheol (Department of Rolling Stock System Engineering, Seoul National University of Science & Technology) ;
  • Koo, Jeong Seo (Department of railway Safety Engineering, Seoul National University of Science & Technology)
  • 조동철 (서울과학기술대학교 철도차량시스템공학과) ;
  • 구정서 (서울과학기술대학교 철도안전공학과)
  • Received : 2021.02.04
  • Accepted : 2021.03.25
  • Published : 2021.04.30
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Abstract

This paper suggests an approach to evaluate the reliability of an intelligent power module with information deficiency of prior distribution and the characteristics of censored data through Bayesian statistics. This approach used a prior distribution of Bayesian statistics using the lifetime information provided by the manufacturer and compared and evaluated diffuse prior (vague prior) distributions. To overcome the computational complexity of Bayesian posterior distribution, it was computed with Gibbs sampling in the Monte Carlo simulation method. As a result, the standard deviation of the prior distribution developed using simple information was smaller than that of the posterior distribution calculated with the diffuse prior. In addition, it showed excellent error characteristics on RMSE compared with the Kaplan-Meier method.

Keywords

Acknowledgement

This paper was written as a support for internal research fund of Seoul National University of Science & Technology.

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