해양안보 (Maritime Security)

한국해양전략연구소 (Korea Institute for Maritime Strategy)
권호 표지

북극해 일대에서 본격화되기 시작한 강대국 경쟁

The Return of Great Power Competition to the Arctic

  • 투고 : 2021.03.24
  • 심사 : 2021.06.07
  • 발행 : 2021.06.30
PDF 다운로드
⟨ 이전 논문 다음 논문 ⟩

초록

21세기 최대의 화두 중 하나는 기후이변으로 인한 지구 온난화 현상이다. 지구온난화는 글로벌 생태계를 위협하는 재앙인 동시에, 북극항로의 상용화를 통한 물류비용 절감이나 광물자원 개발 등을 가능케 하는 기회이기도 하다. 지구의 생태·환경 위협과 새로운 경제적 기회가 병존하는 '북극의 역설'이 글로벌 국제환경에 심대한 영향을 미치게 될 것임을 예고한다. 빙하가 사라지면서, 수에즈-파나마 운하를 통과하지 않고 북극해를 통과하는 루트가 '제3의 항로'로 떠올랐다. 이는 기존 항로의 거리를 30% 정도 줄일 수 있다. 아울러 지구 온난화는 지정학적 패러다임의 변화를 몰고왔다. 북극 얼음이 녹아내리기 시작하면서 북극이 '상수'가 아닌 21세기 최대의 지정학적 '변수'로 떠오를 조짐이다. 이에 따라 탈냉전 시대에 들어 '평화와 협력의 공간'으로 인식되던 북극이 군사·안보측면이 강조되는 새로운 전략환경에 직면하고 있다. 냉전종결 이후 한동안 환경보호 등을 중심으로 협력적 모습을 보이던 북극이 다시금 '냉전 2.0'을 예고하며, 강대국들 간의 새로운 경쟁과 대결의 무대로 변모하고 있다. 본 연구의 목적은 북극해의 전략적 가치를 지정학적 및 지경학적 관점에서 평가하고, 북극 일대에서 벌어지는 신냉전 다이내믹을 분석함으로써, 이를 바탕으로 우리에게 주는 전략적 함의를 도출해 보는 것이다.

Global warming due to climate change is one of the biggest challenges in the 21st century. Global warming is not only a disaster that threatens the global ecosystem but also an opportunity to reduce logistics costs and develop mineral resources by commercializing Arctic routes. The Arctic paradox, in which ecological and environmental threats and new economic opportunities coexist, is expected to have a profound impact on the global environment. As the glaciers disappear, routes through the Arctic Ocean without passing through the Suez and Panama Canals emerged as the 'third route.' This can reduce the distance of existing routes by 30%. Global warming has also brought about changes in the geopolitical paradigm. As Arctic ice begins to melt, the Arctic is no longer a 'constant' but is emerging as the largest geopolitical 'variable' in the 21st century. Accordingly, the Arctic, which was recognized as a 'space of peace and cooperation' in the post-Cold War era, is now facing a new strategic environment in which military and security aspects are emphasized. After the Cold War, the Arctic used to be a place for cooperation centered on environmental protection, but it is once again changing into a stage of competition and confrontation between superpowers, heralding 'Cold War 2.0.' The purpose of this study is to evaluate the strategic value of the Arctic Ocean from geopolitical and geoeconomic perspectives and derive strategic implications by analyzing the dynamics of the New Cold War taking place in the Arctic region.

키워드

과제정보

이 논문은 2021년도 한국해양전략연구소의 연구용역 사업의 지원을 받아 수행된 연구임.(NO.2021-01)

참고문헌

  1. 제성훈.민지영, 「러시아의 북극개발전략과 한.러 협력의 새로운 가능성」 (서울: 대외경제정책연구원, 2013).
  2. Hassol, Susan J. Impacts of Warning Arctic (Cambridge, UK: University of Cambridge Press, 2004).
  3. Humpert, Malte. The Future of Arctic Shipping: A New Silk Road for China? (Washington, DC: Arctic Institute, 2013).
  4. Mackinder, Halford J. Democratic Ideals and Reality (Singapore: Origami Books, 2018).
  5. Spykman, Nicholas J. The Geography of the Peace (New York: H.B. & World, 1944).
  6. U.S. Department of Defense. Arctic Strategy, November 2013.
  7. U.S. Department of Defense Arctic Strategy, June 2019.
  8. U.S. Department of Navy. U.S. Navy Arctic Roadmap 2014~2030, February 2014.
  9. 김선래. "북극해 개발과 북극항로: 러시아의 전략적 이익과 한국의 유라시아 이니셔티브," 「한국 시베리아연구」, 제19권 1호(2015년).
  10. 박재필. "북극해에 대한 미국의 전략적 이익과 동향," 「해양안보포럼 E-저널」, (2019년3월15일).
  11. 양정훈. "북극 자원의 가치와 전략적 접근 방안 연구," 「한국시베리아연구」, 제22집 2호 (2018년), pp. 55-89.
  12. 홍성원. "북극항로의 상업적 이용 가능성에 관한 연구," 「국제지역연구」 제13권 제4호(2010년 1월).
  13. Brady, Anne-Marie. "Facing Up to China's Military Interests in the Arctic," China Brief, Vol. 19, No. 21, 10 December 2019.
  14. Golts, Alexandr. "The Arctic: A Clash of Interests or Clash of Ambitions, " in Stephen Blank(ed.) Russia in the Arctic (Carlisle: Strategic Studies Institute, 2011), pp. 43-62.
  15. Mackinder, Halford J. "The Geographical Pivot of History," Geographical Journal, Vol. 23, No. 4 (April 1904), pp. 421-437. https://doi.org/10.2307/1775498
  16. Mackinder, Halford J. "The Round World and the Winning of the Peace," Foreign Affairs, Vol. 21, No. 4(1943), pp. 595-605. https://doi.org/10.2307/20029780
  17. Mahan, Alfred T. The Influence of Sea Power Upon History, 1660-1783 (New York: Wyatt North, 2004).
  18. Masson-Delmotte, Valerie and others (eds). Global Warming of 1.5℃, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2018.
  19. Mikkola, Harri. The Geostrategic Arctic Hard Security in the High North (Helsinki, Finland: Finnish Institute for International Affairs, 2019).
  20. Soare, Simona R. "Arctic Stress Test: Great Power Competition And Euro-Atlantic Defence in the High North," European Union Institute for Security Studies, 30 April 2020, p. 2.
  21. 곽재원. "중국의 해양책략에 담긴 뜻," 「부산일보」, 2012. 11. 22.
  22. 권홍우. "얼음 녹은 북극항로 선점...사령부 창설에 쇄빙전투함 등장," 「서울경제」, 2018. 11. 9.
  23. 김민수. "극지의 창," 「극지해소식」, 2020. 9. 30.
  24. 김성탁, "온난화로 얼음 얇아진 북극 항로," 「중앙일보」, 2017. 8. 26.
  25. 김예진. "러시아 무서운 세력 확장...신 북극냉전 심화," 「아시아투데이」, 2019. 4. 11.
  26. 김현민. "150년 된 미국의 그린란드 매입 전략," 「아틀라스」, 2019. 8. 21
  27. 박종관.정재호, "북극, 냉전시대로 회귀 '新냉전' 군사.안보 공간으로 확대되나?," 「KIMS Periscope」, 제205호(2020. 9. 1.).
  28. 유철종. "러시아 공수부대, 세계 처음으로 북극 1만m 상공서 낙하 훈련," 「연합뉴스」, 2020. 4. 16.
  29. 이장훈. "러시아가 다시 동방으로 돌아온다," 「주간동아」, 2018. 9. 11.
  30. 이창규. "러시아, 中.印 등 7개국과 군사훈련...분명한 '반미 메시지'," 「뉴시스」, 2019. 9. 18.
  31. 정재호. "북극해를 둘러싼 안보협력과 군비경쟁," 「21세기 해양안보와 국제관계」 (서울: 북 코리아, 2017).
  32. 진징이. "북극 빙하가 녹고 새 길도 뚫리는데," 「한겨레」, 2012. 12. 4.
  33. 한상희. "미국 보란 듯...중러 '군사 협력' 넘어 '군사동맹' 검토," 「머니투데이」, 2019. 10. 29.
  34. "7 Nations Deepen Science and Technology Cooperation To Preserve Safe, Stable and Secure Polar Regions," Office of Naval Research, Corporate Strategic Communications, U.S. Marine Corps, 8 December 2020.
  35. "Russia Launches New Nuclear-powered Icebreaker in Bid to Open Up Arctic," Guardian, 26 May 2019.
  36. Aliyev, Nurlan. "Russia's Military Capabilities in the Arctic," International Center for Defence and Security (ICDS), 25 June 2019.
  37. AMAP(Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Program). "Arctic Climate Change Update 2019," undated.
  38. Baev, Pavel K. "Russia's Reluctant Revisionism in the Arctic," International Center for Defence and Security (ICDS), 15 June 2018.
  39. Baptista, Eduardo. "China 'More Than Other States' Looks to Future Sea Route through Resource-Rich Arctic, Study Says," South China Morning Post, 22 September 2020.
  40. Bennett, Mia M. and others. "The Opening of the Transpolar Sea Route: Logistical, Geopolitical, Environ- mental, and Socioeconomic Impacts," Marine Policy, 31 August 2020.
  41. Bird, Kenneth J. and others. "Circum-Arctic Resource Appraisal: Estimates of Undiscovered Oil and Gas North of the Arctic Circle," USGS Fact Sheet 2008-3049, 2008.
  42. Burke, Ryan. "Great-Power Competition in the 'Snow of Far-Off Northern Lands,'" Modern War Institute, West Point, 8 April 2020.
  43. Conley Heather A. and Matthew Melino, America's Arctic Moment: Great Power Competition in the Arctic to 2050, CSIS, March 2020.
  44. Dalman, Julien and others. Great Power Competition in the Arctic - European Army Interoperability Center (Brussel: Finabel, 2020).
  45. Descamps, Maud. "The Ice Silk Road: Is China a "Near-Arctic-State?," Focus Asia: Perspective & Analysis, February 2019.
  46. Ellyatt, Holly. "hina Is 'Coming Closer' but We Don't Want a New Adversary, NATO Chief Says," CNBC, 2 December 2019.
  47. Freund, Eleanor. "Freedom of Navigation in the South China Sea: A Practical Guide," Belfer Center, Harvard Kennedy School, June 2017.
  48. Goldstein, Lyle J. "Chinese Nuclear Armed Submarines in Russian Arctic Ports? It Could Happen," National Interest, 1 June 2019.
  49. Gorbachev, Mikhail. "Gorbachev's Speech in Murmansk at the Ceremonial Meeting on the Occasion of the Presentation of the Order of Lenin and the Gold Star to the City of Murmansk," 1 Oct. 1987.
  50. Heininen, Lassi. "Circumpolar International Relations and Geopolitics," Arctic Human Development Report, 2004.
  51. Hounshell, Blake. "Pompeo Aims to Counter China's Ambitions in the Arctic," Politico, 6 May 2019.
  52. Humpert, Malte. "China Looking to Expand Satellite Coverage in Arctic, Experts Warn Of Military Purpose," High North News, 4 September 2019.
  53. Kesling, Ben. "Cold War Games: U.S. Is Preparing to Test the Waters in Icy Arctic," Wall Street Journal, 11 January 2019.
  54. Kopra, Sanna. "China's Arctic Interests," Arctic Yearbook 2013.
  55. LaGrone, Sam. "Russian Foreign Minister: No Need for NATO in the Arctic," USNI News, 22 October 2014.
  56. Lanteigne, Marc and Mingming Shi, "China Steps up Its Mining Interests in Greenland," The Diplomat, 12 February 2019.
  57. Laruelle, Marlene. "Russia's Arctic Policy: A Power Strategy and Its Limits," Notes de l'IFRI, March 2020.
  58. Markowitz, Jonathan N. "Why Buying Greenland Wouldn't Really Help the U.S. Economy," Washington Post, 29 August 2019.
  59. Mehta, Aaron. "How a Potential Chinese-built Airport in Greenland Could Be Risky for a Vital US Air Force Base," Defense News, 7 September 2018.
  60. Osthagen, Andreas. "The New Geopolitics of the Arctic: Russia, China and the EU," EU Policy Brief, April 2019.
  61. Pompeo, Michael R. "What is Military-Civil Fusion (MCF)?," Fact Sheet, U.S. Department of State.
  62. Schreiber, Melody. "How Geopolitics Complicate the U.S. Navy's Plans for Major Arctic Operations," Arctic Today, 24 July 2019.
  63. Shankman, Sabrina. "The U.S. Urgently Needs New Icebreaker Ships to Patrol the Arctic. Will Trump's Border Wall Get in the Way?," NBC News, 3 December 2018.
  64. Shirokorad, Alexander. "The Fight for the Arctic Is Growing," Nvo.ng.ru., 17 May 2019.
  65. Skydsgaard, Nikolaj. "China Mixing Military And Science in Arctic Push," Reuters, 29 November 2019.
  66. Staalesen, Atle. "Russia Is Winning Support for Its Claims on Arctic Shelf, Says Chief Negotiator," Barents Observer, 28 November 2019.
  67. Staalesen, Atle. "China's New Icebreaker Completes First Arctic Expedition," Barents Observer, 29 September 2020.
  68. U.S. Embassy in Estonia. "Looking North: Sharpening America's Arctic Focus," 6 May 2019.
  69. Weitz, Richard. "US Policy Towards the Arctic: Adapting to a Changing Environment," RKK ICDS, 24 October 2020.