Journal of Korea Water Resources Association (한국수자원학회논문집)

Korea Water Resources Association (한국수자원학회)
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Comparison of MIROC5 and MIROC6 projections for precipitation over South Korea

MIROC5와 MIROC 6의 우리나라 미래 강수량 예측 비교

  • Chae, Seung Taek (Department Civil Engineering, Seoul National University of Science and Technology) ;
  • Song, Young Hoon (Department Civil Engineering, Seoul National University of Science and Technology) ;
  • Chung, Eun-Sung (Department Civil Engineering, Seoul National University of Science and Technology)
  • 채승택 (서울과학기술대학교 건설시스템공학과) ;
  • 송영훈 (서울과학기술대학교 건설시스템공학과) ;
  • 정은성 (서울과학기술대학교 건설시스템공학과)
  • Received : 2021.01.14
  • Accepted : 2021.03.03
  • Published : 2021.04.30
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Abstract

This study projected the monthly precipitation for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 of the MIROC5 and SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 of MIROC6 GCMs using observations of the historical period (1970 to 2005) of 21 stations in Korea, and then compared the performance before and after bias correction using 6 evaluation indicators. In addition, using the bias corrected GCM's scenarios, annual precipitation, summer precipitation and winter precipitation in near future period (2021-2060) and far future period (2061-2100) were calculated. Furthermore, the variability of future projection was quantified using the standard deviation and interquartile range values of future precipitation. As a result the rate of change of precipitation was greater in the northern region than in the southern region and in the far future rather than the near future. The variability in the projection were also concluded to be larger in the northern region than that in the southern regions.

본 연구에서는 MIROC5와 MIROC6 GCM을 대상으로 우리나라 21개의 관측소의 과거 기간(1970년 ~ 2005년) 관측 값을 이용하여 과거 월 강수량을 모의한 뒤 6개의 평가 지표를 사용하여 편이보정 전후의 성능을 비교하였다. 또한 편이 보정된 GCM의 RCP4.5, RCP8.5 그리고 SSP2-4.5, SSP5-8.5 시나리오를 이용하여 가까운 미래 기간(2021년 ~ 2060년)과 먼 미래 기간(2061년 ~ 2100년)별로 연 강수량, 여름철 강수량, 겨울철 강수량 변화율을 산정하였다. 더 나아가 산정된 미래 강수량의 표준편차와 사분범위 값을 이용하여 미래 예측 값의 변동성을 확인하였다. 분석 결과 강수의 변화율은 남부 지역보다는 북부 지역에서 그리고 가까운 미래보다는 먼 미래에서 크게 나타났다. 변동성의 경우도 가까운 미래와 먼 미래 모두 남부 지역보다는 북부 지역에서 크게 나타남을 확인하였다.

Keywords

Acknowledgement

본 연구는 4단계 BK21 사업의 지원을 받아 수행되었습니다.

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