한국농림기상학회지 (Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology)

  • 제23권4호
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  • Pages.405-414
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  • 2021
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  • 1229-5671(pISSN)
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  • 2288-1859(eISSN)
한국농림기상학회 (Korean Society of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology)
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PNU CGCM-WRF Chain을 활용한 남한지역 찰옥수수 수확일 추정

Estimation of Waxy Corn Harvest Date over South Korea Using PNU CGCM-WRF Chain

  • 허지나 (국립농업과학원 기후변화평가과) ;
  • 김용석 (국립농업과학원 기후변화평가과) ;
  • 조세라 (국립농업과학원 기후변화평가과) ;
  • 심교문 (국립농업과학원 기후변화평가과) ;
  • 안중배 (부산대학교 대기환경과학과) ;
  • 최명주 (부산대학교 대기환경과학과) ;
  • 김영현 (부산대학교 대기환경과학과) ;
  • 강민구 (국립농업과학원 기후변화평가과) ;
  • 최원준 (국립농업과학원 기후변화평가과)
  • Hur, Jina (Climate Change Assessment Division, National Institute of Agricultural Sciences) ;
  • Kim, Yong Seok (Climate Change Assessment Division, National Institute of Agricultural Sciences) ;
  • Jo, Sera (Climate Change Assessment Division, National Institute of Agricultural Sciences) ;
  • Shim, Kyo Moon (Climate Change Assessment Division, National Institute of Agricultural Sciences) ;
  • Ahn, Joong-Bae (Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Pusan National University) ;
  • Choi, Myeong-Ju (Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Pusan National University) ;
  • Kim, Young-Hyun (Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Pusan National University) ;
  • Kang, Mingu (Climate Change Assessment Division, National Institute of Agricultural Sciences) ;
  • Choi, Won Jun (Climate Change Assessment Division, National Institute of Agricultural Sciences)
  • 투고 : 2021.09.24
  • 심사 : 2021.11.26
  • 발행 : 2021.12.30
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초록

본 연구에서는 30년(1991-2020)에 대한 PNU CGCM-WRF chain에서 생산된 6개월 과거예측 자료를 이용하여 남한 전역에 대한 찰옥수수 수확일을 추정하고 평가하였다. 찰옥수수 수확일을 추정하기 위해 61개 지점의 기온 관측 자료와 모형의 기온 예측 자료를 파종일부터 수확 기준 온도까지 적산하는 적산온도 방법을 이용하였다. 평균 기온의 경우, 모형예측 자료는 분석기간(4~9월)에 대해 관측과 비교하여 약 2.9℃도 정도 기온을 과소모의하였다. 이러한 모형의 기온 오차가 적산온도에 반영되어, 관측으로 추정한 수확일과 비교하여 모형은 약 14.4~16.9일 늦게 찰옥수수 수확일을 모의하였다. 오차가 개선된 모형 결과는 기온 예측 자료의 평균 오차가 0.1℃로 감소되고, 수확일 지연이 약 1.1~1.3일로 감소되어 정량적으로 관측과 유사하게 모의하였다. 따라서, 본 연구에서는 PNU CGCM-WRF chain의 미래 기온 예측자료에 적산온도 생육추정 방법을 적용하여 찰옥수수 수확일을 추정함으로써 기후예측자료의 농업부문 활용성을 확인하였다. 찰옥수수와 같이 적산온도가 생육에 큰 영향을 미치는 작물의 경우, 본 연구에서 사용된 방법에 적합한 파종시기와 적산온도 기준값을 설정한다면 다양한 작물에 대한 생육시기 정보를 6개월 사전에 예측하고 활용할 수 있을 것으로 생각된다.

This study predicted waxy corn harvest date in South Korea using 30-year (1991-2020) hindcasts (1-6 month lead) produced by the Pusan National University Coupled General Circulation Model (PNU CGCM)-Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) chain. To estimate corn harvest date, the cumulative temperature is used, which accumulated the daily observed and predicted temperatures from the seeding date (5 April) to the reference temperature (1,650~2,200℃) for harvest. In terms of the mean air temperature, the hindcasts with a bias correction (20.2℃) tends to have a cold bias of about 0.1℃ for the 6 months (April to September) compared to the observation (20.3℃). The harvest date derived from bias-corrected hindcasts (DOY 187~210) well simulates one from observation (DOY 188~211), despite a slight margin of 1.1~1.3 days. The study shows the possibility of obtaining the gridded (5 km) daily temperature and corn harvest date information based on the cumulative temperature in advance for all regions of South Korea.

키워드

과제정보

본 연구는 농촌진흥청 "신농업기후변화대응체계구축사업(과제번호: PJ0148912021)"의 지원으로 수행되었습니다.

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