한국해양학회지:바다 (The Sea:JOURNAL OF THE KOREAN SOCIETY OF OCEANOGRAPHY)

  • 제26권4호
  • /
  • Pages.291-306
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  • 2021
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  • 1226-2978(pISSN)
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  • 2671-8820(eISSN)
한국해양학회 (The Korean Society of Oceanography)
권호 표지
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CMIP6 모형 결과 분석을 통한 북서태평양 해면수온과 해류의 미래변화에 대한 고찰

A Study on Future Changes of Sea Surface Temperature and Ocean Currents in Northwest Pacific through CMIP6 Model Analysis

  • 정수연 (부경대학교 지구환경시스템과학부(해양학전공)) ;
  • 최소현 (부경대학교 해양학과) ;
  • 김영호 (부경대학교 해양학과)
  • JEONG, SUYEON (Division of Earth Environmental System Science (Major of Oceanography), Pukyong National University) ;
  • CHOI, SO HYEON (Department of Oceanography, Pukyong National University) ;
  • KIM, YOUNG HO (Department of Oceanography, Pukyong National University)
  • 투고 : 2021.08.18
  • 심사 : 2021.08.26
  • 발행 : 2021.11.30
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초록

Coupled Climate Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 6에 참여한 21개의 모형들의 기후변화 시나리오 실험 결과로부터 북서태평양 해면수온과 쿠로시오의 미래변화를 분석하였다. 해면수온 상승의 공간적인 특징은 쿠로시오의 공간적인 분포와 유속의 변화와 관련된 것으로 파악되었다. 북태평양에서 아열대 순환계와 아한대 순환계의 경계를 따라 흐르는 쿠로시오 확장역의 위치 변화와 지구온난화에 따른 대규모 대기순환과의 관계를 알아보기 위해 21개 모형 중 9개의 모형들의 기후변화 실험별로 zero-바람회전응력이 나타나는 위도를 비교하였다. 온실기체의 증가로 대기복사강제력이 커짐에 따라 zero-바람회전응력이 나타나는 위도가 북상하는 것을 확인하였으며, 이는 관측에서 나타난 zero-바람회전응력이 나타나는 위도가 북상하는 추세와 일치하는 결과이다. 이러한 결과는 지구온난화로 인해 해들리순환이 북쪽으로 확장함에 따라 한반도가 속한 중위도의 온난화가 가속될 수 있음을 나타낸다. 대한해협을 통해 동해로 유입되는 대마난류의 수송량과 온도 또한 대기복사강제력이 커짐에 따라 증가하였다.

From the climate change scenario experiments of 21 models participating in Coupled Climate Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 6, future changes of sea surface temperature (SST) and Kuroshio in the Northwest Pacific were analyzed. The spatial feature of SST change was found to be related to the change of the current speed and spatial distribution of Kuroshio. To investigate the relationship between the change in latitude of the Kuroshio extension region, which flows along the boundary between the subtropical gyre and the subarctic gyre in the North Pacific, and the large-scale atmospheric circulation due to global warming, the zero-windstress curl line for each climate change experiment from 9 out of 21 models were compared. As the atmospheric radiative forcing increases due to the increase of greenhouse gases, it was confirmed that the zero-windstress curl line moves northward, which is consistent with the observation. These results indicate that as the Hadley Circulation expands to the north due to global warming, the warming of the mid-latitudes to which the Korean Peninsula belongs may be accelerated. The volume transport and temperature of the Tsushima Warm Current flowing into the East Sea through the Korea Strait also increased as the atmospheric radiative forcing increased.

키워드

과제정보

이 논문은 부경대학교 자율창의학술연구비(2019년)에 의하여 연구되었음.

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