응용통계연구 (The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics)

  • 제33권4호
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  • Pages.421-437
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  • 2020
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  • 1225-066X(pISSN)
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  • 2383-5818(eISSN)
한국통계학회 (The Korean Statistical Society)
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R를 활용한 인구변동요인 산정과 인구추계 시스템 개발

Development of system of Population projection and driving variation on demography for Korea using R

  • 오진호 (한밭대학교 공과대학 수리과학과)
  • Oh, Jinho (Department Mathematical Sciences, HanBat National University)
  • 투고 : 2020.05.20
  • 심사 : 2020.07.11
  • 발행 : 2020.08.31
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⟨ 이전 논문 다음 논문 ⟩

초록

본 논문은 최근에 널리 사용되고 있는 R 프로그램으로 출산율, 사망률, 국제이동률을 예측하고 이들 결과를 Leslie 행렬에 대입해 인구추계 산출하는 방법을 소개한다. 특히 Kaneko (2003)가 제안한 출산율의 일반화로그감마모형, Li 등 (2013)의 사망률 LC-ER 모형, Ramsay와 Silverman (2005)가 제안한 국제이동률의 함수적데이터모형을 시현할 수 있도록 하였다. 최근 R로 구현된 대표적인 인구추계 패키지로 demography, bayesPop가 소개되고 있으나, 이는 Human Mortality Database (HMD), Human Fertility Database (HFD)에 업로드된 자료에 한에서만 분석이 가능하고 기타 데이터를 적용하기 위해서는 자료 변경과 수정이 요구된다. 특히 우리나라의 경우 HMD에 단기 간의 자료로만 제공되어 있어 이 패키기를 적용하기에는 한계점이 있다. 이에 본 논문은 이런 실정과 한국의 저출산, 고령화, 내국인, 외국인 국제이동률 상이패턴을 반영할 수 있는 R 프로그램을 소개하고, 2117년까지의 인구추계를 도출하였다.

This paper implemented a method to predict the fertility rate, mortality rate, and international migration rate using the R program, which has been widely used in recent years, that calculates population projection by substituting the results into the Leslie matrix. In particular, the generalization log gamma model for the fertility rate by Kaneko (2003), LC-ER model for mortality rate by Li et al. (2013), and functional data model for international migration rates proposed by Ramsay and Silverman (2005) and Hyndman and Booth (2008), Hyndman et al. (2013) can be directly demonstrated with R programs. Demography and bayesPop have been introduced as a representative demographic package implemented in R; however, it can be analyzed only for data uploaded to Human Mortality Database (HMD) and Human Fertility Database (HFD) with data changes and modifications requiring application of other data. In particular, in Korea, there is a limitation in applying this package because it is provided only for short-term data in HMD. This paper introduces an R program that can reflect this situation and the different patterns of low fertility, aging, migration of domestic and foreigners in Korea, and derives a population projection for the year 2117.

키워드

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