한국수자원학회논문집 (Journal of Korea Water Resources Association)

  • 제53권6호
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  • Pages.437-450
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  • 2020
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  • 2799-8746(pISSN)
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  • 2799-8754(eISSN)
한국수자원학회 (Korea Water Resources Association)
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무유출의 고려를 통한 간헐하천 유역에 확률기반의 격자형 수문모형의 구축

Accounting for zero flows in probabilistic distributed hydrological modeling for ephemeral catchment

  • 이동기 (공주대학교 건설환경공학과) ;
  • 안국현 (공주대학교 건설환경공학과)
  • Lee, DongGi (Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Kongju National University) ;
  • Ahn, Kuk-Hyun (Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Kongju National University)
  • 투고 : 2020.03.18
  • 심사 : 2020.05.18
  • 발행 : 2020.06.30
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초록

본 연구에서는 우리나라의 기후 특성의 영향으로 종종 발생하는 무유출량의 간헐하천 유역(Ephemeral catchment)에 확률기반 격자형 수문 모형을 구축하였다. 격자형 모형의 구축을 위하여 Sacramento Soil Moisture Accounting Model (SAC-SMA) 유출 모형을 사용하였으며 라우팅 모형의 결합으로 격자형 강우-유출 모형을 구축하였다. 확률 모형의 표현을 위하여 에러 모형을 결합시켰으며 간헐하천 유역에 적합하게 표현하기 위해서 검열된 오류 모형(censoring error model)을 사용하였다. 기존에 많이 사용되는 정규화된 오류 모형과의 비교를 통하여 본 연구에서 구축한 모형의 적합성을 평가하였다. 먼저 과거 주된 연구와 유역에 대한 검토를 통하여 그 필요성을 논하였으며 우리나라에서 수문 모형에 많이 사용되는 용담댐을 선정하여 수문 모형을 구축하였다. 결과적으로 본 연구에서 구축한 두개의 모형이 둘 다 신뢰할 만한 결과를 보여주지만 검열된 오류 모형의 사용이 더욱 적합한 결과를 보여주는 것을 확인하였다. 이 과정에서 기존의 방법론은 확률 기반의 유출량의 표현에 있어서 0 이하의 음수값을 상당히 표현하였으며 이는 현실이지 못한 수문 모델링의 표현을 의미한다. 본 연구에서는 또한 두 모형의 심층적인 비교를 위하여 심화된 간헐하천 유역을 구축하고 수문 모델링을 하였다. 결과적으로 무유출의 빈도 증가에 따라 무유출량을 고려하는 검열된 오류 모형의 효율이 증가하는 것을 알 수 있었다. 본 연구에서 얻은 결과는 우리나라의 수문 모델링에 있어서 간헐하천 유역에 대한 고려가 필요하다는 것을 의미한다.

This study presents a probabilistic distributed hydrological model for Ephemeral catchment, where zero flow often occurs due to the influence of distinct climate characteristics in South Korea. The gridded hydrological model is developed by combining the Sacramento Soil Moisture Accounting Model (SAC-SMA) runoff model with a routing model. In addition, an error model is employed to represent a probabilistic hydrologic model. To be specific, the hydrologic model is coupled with a censoring error model to properly represent the features of ephemeral catchments. The performance of the censoring error model is evaluated by comparing it with the Gaussian error model, which has been utilized in a probabilistic model. We first address the necessity to consider ephemeral catchments through a review of the extensive research conducted over the recent decade. Then, the Yongdam Dam catchment is selected for our study area to confirm the usefulness of the hydrologic model developed in this study. Our results indicate that the use of the censored error model provides more reliable results, although the two models considered in this study perform reliable results. In addition, the Gaussian model delivers many negative flow values, suggesting that it occasionally offers unrealistic estimations in hydrologic modeling. In an in-depth analysis, we find that the efficiency of the censored error model may increase as the frequency of zero flow increases. Finally, we discuss the importance of utilizing the censored error model when the hydrologic model is applied for ephemeral catchments in South Korea.

키워드

참고문헌

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