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코로나-19에 따른 서울시 생활인구 변화와 동별 반응 차이 분석

Analysis of the differences in living population changes and regional responses by COVID-19 outbreak in Seoul

  • 진주혜 (중앙대학교 응용통계학과) ;
  • 성병찬 (중앙대학교 응용통계학과)
  • Jin, Juhae (Department of Applied Statistics, Chung-Ang University) ;
  • Seong, Byeongchan (Department of Applied Statistics, Chung-Ang University)
  • 투고 : 2020.09.07
  • 심사 : 2020.10.31
  • 발행 : 2020.12.31

초록

최근 20년간 세계적으로 새로운 전염병이 반복해서 등장해왔으며 코로나-19에 들어서는 일상에까지 큰 변화와 피해를 주고 있다. 이에 더해 앞으로도 새로운 전염병의 등장을 간과할 수 없게 되면서 경제 타격에 대응하기 위한 정책 발굴이 지속적으로 요구되고 있다. 이러한 상황에서 생활인구는 시민들의 생활 패턴 변화를 드러내는 중요한 지표이다. 본 논문에서는 코로나-19에 의한 일상의 변화를 유동인구 관점에서 감지 및 분류하여 시간적 및 사회환경적 특징을 분석한다. 시간 단위로 측정된 서울시 424개 행정동별 생활인구 데이터를 분류하기 위해 k-shape clustering을 사용하였고, 이후에는 각 군집에 개입분석, One-way ANOVA 등을 적용하여 코로나-19 진행 여파에 따른 군집별 특성 및 생활인구 변화 양상을 자세히 살펴보았다. 결론적으로 국내 코로나 환자 발생 전후의 인구 유출입 변동에 있어 각 군집별로 뚜렷한 특징을 확인하였으며, 코로나-19 관련 사건을 바탕으로 지정한 개입 시점에 대해서도 민감하게 반응하는 군집과 그렇지 않은 군집을 구분할 수 있었다.

New infectious diseases have broken out repeatedly across the world over the last 20 years; COVID-19 is causing drastic changes and damage to daily lives. Furthermore, as there is no denying that new epidemics will appear in the future, there is a continuous need to develop measures aimed towards responding to economic damage. Against this backdrop, the living population is an important indicator that shows changes in citizens' life patterns. This study analyzes time-based and socio-environmental characteristics by detecting and classifying changes in everyday life caused by COVID-19 from the perspective of the floating population. k-shape Clustering is used to classify living population data of each of the 424 dong's in Seoul measured by the hour; then by applying intervention analysis and One-way ANOVA, each cluster's characteristics and aspects of change in the living population occurring in the aftermath of COVID-19 are scrutinized. In conclusion, this study confirms each cluster's obvious characteristics in changes of population flows before and after the confirmation of coronavirus patients and distinguishes groups that reacted sensitively to the intervention times on the basis of COVID-related incidents from those that did not.

키워드

참고문헌

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