Ocean and Polar Research

  • 제42권1호
  • /
  • Pages.63-76
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  • 2020
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  • 1598-141X(pISSN)
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  • 2234-7313(eISSN)
한국해양과학기술원 (Korea Institute of Ocean Science & Technology)
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Bayesian state-space 모델을 이용한 말쥐치 자원평가 및 관리효과 분석

Assessing Stock Biomass and Analyzing Management Effects Regarding the Black Scraper (Thamnaconus modestus) Using Bayesian State-space Model

  • 최민제 (국립부경대학교 수산과학대학 해양수산경영학과) ;
  • 김도훈 (국립부경대학교 수산과학대학 해양수산경영학과) ;
  • 이해원 (국립수산과학원 수산자원연구센터) ;
  • 서영일 (국립수산과학원 연근해자원과) ;
  • 이성일 (국립수산과학원 원양자원과)
  • Choi, Min-Je (Department of Marine & Fisheries Business and Economics, College of Fisheries Sciences) ;
  • Kim, Do-Hoon (Department of Marine & Fisheries Business and Economics, College of Fisheries Sciences) ;
  • Lee, Hae-Won (Fisheries Resources Research Center, National Institute of Fisheries Science) ;
  • Seo, Young-Il (Coastal Water Fisheries Resources Research Division, National Institute of Fisheries Science) ;
  • Lee, Sung-Il (Distant Water Fisheries Resources Research Division, National Institute of Fisheries Science)
  • 투고 : 2019.11.08
  • 심사 : 2020.02.25
  • 발행 : 2020.03.30
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초록

This study sought to assess the stock status and analyze the management effects with regard to the Black scraper, which is one of the more commercially important species in Korea. The catch amounts of Black scraper have significantly decreased since 1991. In this analysis, a Bayesian state-space model was utilized to assess the biomass of the Black scraper given the limited data. Model results showed that MSY and BMSY of Black scraper were estimated to be 26,587 tons and 365,200 tons, respectively. In addition, the current biomass level of the Black scraper was assessed to be only 2.1% (7,549 tons) of BMSY. For this reason, the effects of a moratorium policy on the Black scraper were evaluated. The results showed that if such a moratorium policy was implemented, it would take at least 18-40 years to restore the biomass level of the Black scraper to BMSY depending upon its growth rates.

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참고문헌

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