Journal of Navigation and Port Research (한국항해항만학회지)

Korean Institute of Navigation and Port Research (한국항해항만학회)
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A Study on Proper Harbor Pilot Demand Estimation for ensuring Port Competitiveness in Korea

우리나라 항만경쟁력 확보를 위한 적정 도선사 수요산정에 관한 연구

  • Kim, Tae-Goun (Division of Maritime Transportation Science, Korea Maritime and Ocean University) ;
  • Jeon, Yeong-Woo (Division of Maritime Transportation Science, Korea Maritime and Ocean University)
  • 김태균 (한국해양대학교 해사수송과학부) ;
  • 전영우 (한국해양대학교 해사수송과학부)
  • Received : 2020.12.16
  • Accepted : 2020.12.28
  • Published : 2020.12.31
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Abstract

In order to propose a realistic demand forecast for harbor pilots, define a direction for securing a supply of pilots for the betterment of national logistic services, and ensure the competitiveness of Korean ports, this study intended first to propose a new forecasting process for harbor pilot requirements through conducting analysis of determining factors affecting harbor pilot demand. Additionally, analyzing relevant previous studies allowed us to estimate the number of pilots required in the past and asses the studies limitations. Our second purpose was to propose a more stable allocation method among different pilot areas after forecasting the demand of harbor pilots until 2027 through application of the new forecasting process. From this application, the total number of pilots required was forecasted at 270, suggesting the total demand for harbor pilots will be increased by 7.57% compared with 251 pilots in 2018.

이 연구는 국가 물류서비스의 향상과 항만경쟁력 확보를 위해 우리나라의 현실에 맞는 적정한 도선사 수요의 예측과 도선사 공급 유지방안을 제시하기 위하여 첫째, 우리나라 도선사 수요산정에 영향을 미치는 결정요인의 분석과 이를 바탕으로 도선사 수를 추정한 선행연구들의 한계점을 분석하여, 새로운 도선사 수요예측 프로세스를 제시하였다. 둘째, 도선 서비스 안전보장을 위한 최대 적정도선 시간 등을 포함한 제시된 개선방안을 적용하여, 향후 2027년까지 도선구역별 적정 도선사 수요를 예측한 후 보다 안정적인 도선사 배정방안을 제시하였다. 이를 적용한 결과 2027년에 필요한 총 도선사수는 270명으로 2018년 우리나라 총 도선사수 251명 대비 7.57% 증가할 것으로 전망되었다.

Keywords

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