Journal of Digital Convergence (디지털융복합연구)

The Society of Digital Policy and Management (한국디지털정책학회)
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Comparison of Synchronization Phenomenon & the Changing Rate of the Charter Rates by major cities - Korea, Seoul, Busan, Daegu, Gwangju, Daejeon -

주요 도시별 전세가율의 동조화 현상과 변동률 비교 - 전국, 서울, 부산, 대구, 광주, 대전 -

  • Choi, Jeong-Il (Division of Business, SungKyul University) ;
  • Lee, Ok-Dong (Division of Urban Planning/Real Estate, SungKyul University)
  • 최정일 (성결대학교 경영학부) ;
  • 이옥동 (성결대학교 도시계획/부동산학부)
  • Received : 2019.12.19
  • Accepted : 2020.02.20
  • Published : 2020.02.28
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Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to find the direction by analyzing the synchronization phenomenon and the change rate of apartment charter rate in Korea, Seoul, Busan, Daegu, Gwangju and Daejeon. For this purpose, this study used a total of 239 monthly data from January 2000 to November 2019 in Kookmin Bank housing statistics. In the correlation analysis, Korea showed the highest relationship in order of Seoul, Busan, Incheon and Daegu. Seoul showed a low figure of 0.3 without any distinctive features from other cities. On the other hand, Busan, Daejeon and Daegu showed high correlations. As a result of the regression analysis, Korea and 5 major cities were all moving in the same direction with positive(+) values. And Busan and Seoul responded significantly to Korea. In the shock response, Korea is most shocked by the change in Seoul. Daegu is relatively shocked by Busan and Daejeon. Seoul's charter rate has declined most strongly in the last three years. Therefore, it is time to be careful not to incur losses due to gap investment. If we look at the relationship between the charter rate and the sale price in future studies, we can better understand the Korean apartment market.

본 논문은 전국과 서울, 부산, 대구, 광주, 대전을 대상으로 아파트 전세가율의 동조화 현상과 변동률을 분석하여 향후 방향성을 찾아보는데 목적이 있다. 이를 위해 국민은행 주택통계에서 2000년 1월부터 2019년 11월까지 총 239개 월간자료를 이용하였다. 상관관계분석에서 전국은 서울, 부산, 인천, 대구 순서로 높은 상관계수를 보여 주었다. 서울은 각 도시와 큰 특징 없이 0.3대의 동일한 수치로 보인 반면 부산과 대전, 대구의 3개 도시는 서로 연관성이 높은 관계로 나타났다. 회귀분석결과, 전국과 주요 5개 도시는 모두 양(+)의 수치를 보여 모두 동일한 방향으로 움직이고 있지만 부산과 서울은 상대적으로 크게 반응하는 것으로 나타났다. 충격반응에서 전국은 서울의 변동에 의해 가장 큰 충격을 받고 있으며, 대구는 부산과 대전에 의해 상대적으로 큰 충격을 받아온 것으로 나타났다. 서울의 전세가율이 최근 3년 동안 가장 강하게 감소하고 있어 갭 투자로 인한 손실이 발생하지 않도록 주의가 필요한 시점이다. 차후 연구를 통해 전세가율과 매매가와의 관계를 살펴본다면 한국 아파트시장을 매우 잘 이해할 수 있을 것이다.

Keywords

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