System Dynamics Modeling on Rebound Effects from Improved Automobile Fuel-Efficiency

에너지 효율 개선의 반등효과에 대한 시스템다이내믹스 모델링: 승용차 연비 개선을 중심으로

This study aims to understand the causal mechanisms of generating rebound effects from improved energy efficiency through system dynamics modeling. The modeling centers on the sector of automobile fuel-efficiency in the EU countries. Two different disciplines on rebound effects - economic theory and social practice theory - have developed explanations of why the phenomenon occurs by which a system dynamics model is developed. Computer simulations allow seeing the long-term effect of the enhancement in fuel-efficiency, compared to the baseline trend, showing the size of the contribution to the energy-saving goals. The result of the simulations shows that the increase in fuel-efficiency does not ensure a reduction in energy consumption because of significant rebound effects. It likely causes even backfires leading to an increase in energy consumption. Policy experiments elucidate possible pathways to decouple between energy consumption and driving distance as well as to overcome backfires.