한국수자원학회논문집 (Journal of Korea Water Resources Association)

  • 제52권10호
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  • Pages.657-669
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  • 2019
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  • 2799-8746(pISSN)
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  • 2799-8754(eISSN)
한국수자원학회 (Korea Water Resources Association)
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정상성 및 비정상성 수문자료의 지역빈도해석

Regional frequency analysis for stationary and nonstationary hydrological data

  • 허준행 (연세대학교 공과대학 건설환경공학과) ;
  • 김한빈 (연세대학교 공과대학 건설환경공학과)
  • Heo, Jun-Haenga (School of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Yonsei University) ;
  • Kim, Hanbeen (School of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Yonsei University)
  • 투고 : 2019.07.31
  • 심사 : 2019.10.04
  • 발행 : 2019.10.31
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⟨ 이전 논문 다음 논문 ⟩

초록

수공구조물의 설계 시 빈도해석을 통해 수문자료의 통계적 특성을 고려하여 설계빈도에 대한 정확한 확률수문량을 산정하는 것은 매우 중요한 절차이다. 지역빈도해석은 대상 지점의 자료만을 이용하여 확률수문량을 산정하는 지점빈도해석과 달리 수문학적으로 동질한 것으로 판단되는 주변지점들의 자료를 모두 포함하여 빈도해석을 수행하므로 미계측 지점 또는 자료 보유년수가 짧은 지점에서 보다 정확한 확률수문량 산정이 가능하다. 본 총설논문에서는 이러한 지역빈도해석 기법을 수문자료의 특성에 따라 정상성 지역빈도해석과 비정상성 지역빈도해석으로 구분하고, 각 방법의 기본이론과 절차 및 관련 연구를 홍수지수법을 중심으로 상세히 설명하였으며 최신 연구동향을 정리하였다. "홍수량 산정 표준지침"의 개정을 통해 포함되는 정상성 지역빈도해석에 대해 언급하고, 비정상성 지역빈도해석과 관련한 향후 연구주제를 기술하며 논문을 마무리 한다.

To estimate accurate design quantiles considering statistical characteristics of hydrological data is one of the most important procedures in the design of hydraulic structures. While at-site frequency analysis estimates design quantile using observed data at a site of interest, regional frequency analysis (RFA) utilizes a number of sites included in a hydrologically homogeneous region. Therefore, RFA could provide a more accurate design quantile at ungauged site or sites with short observation period. In this review article, RFA is classified into stationary RFA and nonstationary RFA depending on the characteristic of hydrological data, and the basic concept, procedure, and application of each technique are explained in detail focused on the index flood method. Additionally, a review of the state of the art for RFA procedure is presented. This paper is finalized by describing the stationary regional rainfall frequency analysis over South Korea contained in the amendment of "Standard guidelines for design flood estimation" and various future study topics related to nonstationary RFA.

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