The Journal of Society for e-Business Studies (한국전자거래학회지)

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Analysis of Investment Time for a Residential Photovoltaic Power System in China and Thailand Applying a Real Option Model and SAM Data

Real Option 모형과 SAM데이터를 활용한 중국과 태국의 주거용 태양광 투자 시점 분석

  • Moon, Yongma (College of Business Administration, University of Seoul)
  • Received : 2019.04.10
  • Accepted : 2019.05.16
  • Published : 2019.05.31
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Abstract

This paper provides economic analysis for a residential photovoltaic (PV) power system of 5 districts in China and Thailand, using SAM (System Advisor Model) data. Unlike existing literature, the analysis is conducted from the investment timing perspective, as applying to a real option model which can incorporate the cost uncertainty of the PV system and a resident's option to delay the investment. This study shows that the gap of optimal investment times between a real option model and a generally used net present value model ranges from about 6 to 14 years. Also, we found a contracting result for a particular district that, while the investment is appropriate according to the net present value model, it is more reasonable to delay the PV system investment in terms of the real option model.

본 논문에서는 중국과 태국의 각 5개 지역에 대해 SAM(System Advisor Model)의 태양광 자료를 활용하여 주거용 태양광 시스템 투자 경제성을 분석하였다. 이는 기존 문헌과 달리 태양광 시스템의 비용 불확실성과 이로 인해 발생할 수 있는 투자자의 의사결정 유연성을 고려할 수 있는 real option 모형을 활용하여 최적 투자 시점의 관점에서 수행되었다. 본 연구결과 real option에 의한 투자 시점과 일반적으로 많이 사용되는 순현가법에 의한 결과와의 차이가 약 6년에서 14년 정도로 나타났다. 또한, 일부 지역에서는 순현가법에 의하면 투자가 적정한 것으로 판단되나 real option에 따른 결과는 투자를 지연하는 것이 합리적이라는 결론을 보여준다.

Keywords

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