Journal of Contemporary Eastern Asia

세계트리플헬릭스미래전략학회 (World Association for Triple Helix and Future Strategy Studies)
권호 표지
DOI QR코드

DOI QR Code

A Rusty but Provocative Knife? The Rationale behind China's Sanction Usage

  • 발행 : 2019.07.22
PDF 다운로드
⟨ 이전 논문 다음 논문 ⟩

초록

China has initiated a series of "economic sanctions" against South Korea, affecting Korean pop stars visiting China and Korean investments in China. Sanctions were imposed on South Korea in response to the decision of South Korea to deploy Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) in 2016. Furthermore, the Global Daily assembled local population to boycott Korean products and investments in China. However, the Chinese Foreign Ministry has never positively confirmed these activities as economic sanctions to South Korea related to the THAAD installation. In other words, the Chinese government singled a relatively weak message via these sanctions to South Korea. As a result, the THADD implementation continued in South Korea. In the paper, I interpret China's rationale to impost puzzling economic sanctions, which have a weak resolution, to South Korea and Taiwan. As signaling theory argues, economic sanctions with insufficient resolution, which are more likely to fail, is a more provocative foreign policy. By reviewing China's sanctions usage to South Korea and Taiwan, I propose arguments of bureaucratic competition to answer why China launched such sanctions to other countries: those are caused by domestic institutions who are seeking reward from the Communist Party of China. By comparing shifts of leadership between domestic agencies, the paper provides evidence to support the proposed argument. I also include two alternative explanations to strengthen the proposed argument, albeit connecting the paper with other two larger streams of research, which address analyses of China's aggressive foreign policies as well as the domestic politics of economic sanctions.

키워드

참고문헌

  1. Apple Daily. (2016, Jan., 23). Xiao ying dangxuan duian chuan jian 1/3 lu ke [Tsai's election resulted in a decrease of 1/3 Chinese tourists]. Apple Daily. https://tw.appledaily.com/headline/daily/20160123/37027875. Access May 30, 2019.
  2. Apple Daily. (2016, July 19) 720 Lu ke jin lai tai? Guanguang ju: Meiyou zhr hui shì [No more Chinese tourists after July 20th? Tourism Bureau: No such thing]. Apple Daily. https://tw.appledaily.com/new/realtime/20160719/911101/. Access May 30, 2019.
  3. Askari, H. (2003). Economic sanctions: Examining their philosophy and efficacy. Greenwood Publishing Group.
  4. BBC. (2017, July 11). South Korea tourism hit by China ban. BBC. https://www.bbc.com/news/business-40565119. Access May 30, 2019.
  5. Bueno de Mesquita, B. & Smith, A. (2012). Domestic explanations of international relations. Annual Review of Political Science ,15, 161-181. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-polisci-070209-174835
  6. Buzan, B. & Cox, M. (2013). China and the US: Comparable Cases of Peaceful Rise'? Chinese Journal of International Politics, 6(2), 109-132. https://doi.org/10.1093/cjip/pot003
  7. Caixin. (2016, May 20). Guo tai ban: Cai yingwen wei mingque chengren jiuer gongshi caiqu mohu taidu [Taiwan Affairs Office: Tsai Ying-Wen does not explicitly recognize the 1992 consensus]. Caixin. http://www.caixin.com/2016-05-20/100945996.html. Access May 30, 2019.
  8. Chang-Liao, NC. (2018). Domestic Politics and China's Assertive Foreign Policy: Why China's Rise May Not Be Peaceful. In Decoding the Rise of China. Springer, pp. 85-106.
  9. China Chain Store & Franchise Association. (2016) Top Hundreds Chain Brand in China. http://www.ccfa.org.cn/portal/cn/hangybzhun.jsp?lt=31&pn=5&pg=1. Access May 30, 2019.
  10. Dorussen, H., & Mo, J. (2001). Ending economic sanctions: Audience costs and rent-seeking as commitment strategies. Journal of Conflict Resolution, 45(4), 395-426. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022002701045004001
  11. Doxey, M. P. (1980). Economic sanctions and international enforcement. New York: Springer.
  12. Drezner, D. W. (2000). Bargaining, enforcement, and multilateral sanctions: when is cooperation counterproductive? International Organization, 54(1), 73-102. https://doi.org/10.1162/002081800551127
  13. Drezner, D. W. (2011). Sanctions sometimes smart: targeted sanctions in theory and practice. International Studies Review, 13(1), 96-108. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-2486.2010.01001.x
  14. Drury, A C. (1998). Revisiting economic sanctions reconsidered. Journal of Peace Research, 35(4), 497-509. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022343398035004006
  15. Epoch Times. (2017, July 10). Zhonggong guo tai ban zhuren zhangzhijun luoxuan shijiu da daibiao [Zhang Zhijun, director of the Taiwan Affairs Office of the Communist Party of China, was not elected to the 19th National Congress]. Epoch Times. http://www.epochtimes.com/gb/17/7/9/n9371745.htm. Access May 30, 2019.
  16. Feng, L. (2016, Sep. 23). Taiwan Snubbed by ICAO, Under Pressure from China. Voice of America. https://www.voanews.com/a/taiwan-snubbed-icao-pressure-china/3522841.html. Access May 30, 2019.
  17. Gerring, J. (2006). Case study research: Principles and practices. New York: Cambridge university press.
  18. Glaser, B. S. (2012, August 6) China's Coercive Economic Diplomacy: A New and Worrying Trend. Center for Strategic & International Studies. https://www.csis.org/analysis/chinascoercive- economic-diplomacy-new-and-worrying-trend. Access May 30, 2019.
  19. Graham, A. and Philip, Z. (1971). Essence of decision: explaining the Cuban missile crisis. Boston: Little, Brown and Company.
  20. Grauvogel, J., Licht, A. A., & von Soest, C. (2017). Sanctions and signals: How international sanction threats trigger domestic protest in targeted regimes. International Studies Quarterly, 61(1), 86-97.
  21. Hart Jr, R. A. (2000). Democracy and the successful use of economic sanctions. Political Research Quarterly, 53(2), 267-284. https://doi.org/10.1177/106591290005300203
  22. Helms, J. (1999). What sanctions epidemic? US business' curious crusade. Foreign Affairs. Pp. 2-8.
  23. Hufbauer, G. Cl., Schott, J. J., & Elliott, K. A. (1990). Economic sanctions reconsidered: History and current policy. Vol. 1 Washington, DC: Peterson Institute.
  24. Hultman, L., & Peksen, D. (2017). Successful or counterproductive coercion? The effect of international sanctions on conflict intensity. Journal of Conflict Resolution, 61(6), 1315-1339. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022002715603453
  25. Humphries, M. (2012, June 8) Rare Earth Elements: The Global Supply Chain. Congressional Research Service. R41347. https://stuff.mit.edu/afs/athena/course/12/12.000/www/m2016/pdf/R41347.pdf. Access May 30, 2019.
  26. Johnston, A. I.. (2003). Is China a Status Quo Power? International Security, 27(4), 5-56. https://doi.org/10.1162/016228803321951081
  27. Kaempfer, W. H, & Lowenberg, A. D. (1989). The theory of international economic sanctions: A public choice approach: Reply. The American Economic Review, 79(5), 1304-1306.
  28. Kaempfer, W. H., & Lowenberg, A. D. (1992). International economic sanctions: A public choice perspective. New York: Westview press.
  29. Kang, D. C. (2007). China Rising: Peace, Power, and Order in East Asia. New York.: Columbia University Press.
  30. Kaplan, R. D. (2011). The South China Sea is the future of conflict. Foreign Policy (188), 76.
  31. Kim, C., & Adam, J. (2017, Sep 14). One year after China's THAAD warning, South Korean business suffer. The Japan Times. https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2017/09/14/asia-pacific/one-year-chinas-thaad-warning-south-korean-business-suffer/\#.WeNvY2iCzBU. Access May 30, 2019.
  32. Kyodo. (2016, Sep. 12). Travel industry asks Taiwan's government to tackle fall in mainland Chinese tourists since President Tsai Ing-wen took office. South China Morning Post. http://www.scmp.com/news/china/policies-politics/article/2018534/travel-industry-asks-taiwans-government-tackle-fall. Access May 30, 2019.
  33. Lacy, D., & Niou, E. (2004). A theory of economic sanctions and issue linkage: The roles of preferences, information, and threats. Journal of Politics, 66(1), 25-42. https://doi.org/10.1046/j.1468-2508.2004.00140.x
  34. Lektzian, D. J., & Sprecher, C. M. (2007). Sanctions, signals, and militarized conflict. American Journal of Political Science, 51(2), 415-431. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-5907.2007.00259.x
  35. Lin, SJ. (2016, May 10). Lu pai ren shi ya cai yingwen! Ji 2 qian yi jingji konghe dan [China sent people to pressure President Tsai! Put forward 200 billion "economic threats"]. TVBS. https://news.tvbs.com.tw/local/653264. Access May 30, 2019.
  36. Marinov, N. (2005). Do economic sanctions destabilize country leaders? American Journal of Political Science, 49(3), 564-576. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-5907.2005.00142.x
  37. Mearsheimer, J. J. (2001). The tragedy of great power politics. New York: Norton.
  38. Mearsheimer, J. J. (2006). China's unpeaceful rise. Current History, 105(690), 160. https://doi.org/10.1525/curh.2006.105.690.160
  39. Mearsheimer, J. J. (2009). Reckless States and Realism. International Relations, 23(2), 241-256. https://doi.org/10.1177/0047117809104637
  40. Mearsheimer, J. J. (2010). The Gathering Storm: China's Challenge to US Power in Asia. The Chinese Journal of International Politics, 3(4), 381-396. https://doi.org/10.1093/cjip/poq016
  41. Morgan, T C., & Miers, A. C. (1999). When threats succeed: A formal model of the threat and use of economic sanctions. In Annual Meeting of the American Political Science Association, Atlanta, GA. Vol. 264.
  42. Morgan, T. C., & Schwebach, V. L. (1997). Fools suffer gladly: The use of economic sanctions in international crises. International Studies Quarterly, 41(1), 27-50. https://doi.org/10.1111/0020-8833.00032
  43. New Tang Dynasty. (2016, Dec. 28) Chuan guo tai ban zhuren zhangzhijun tiqian xiatai xijinping dui qi yanzhong buman [Zhang Zhijun, director of the Taiwan Affairs Office, stepped down in advance because Xi Jinping was seriously dissatisfied with it.]. New Tang Dynasty Television. http://www.ntdtv.com/xtr/gb/2016/12/28/a1304063.html. Access May 30, 2019.
  44. Oriental Daily News. (2016, June 17). Chuan dalu xian suo si fen sanlu ke jin you tainan zhu gaoxiong jiudian [It is said that China is restricted to four-thirds of its tourists to visit Tainan and stay at Hotel in Kaohsiung.]. Oriental Daily News. http://hk.on.cc/tw/bkn/cnt/news/20160617/bkntw-20160617113006486-0617_04011_001_cn.html. Access May 30, 2019.
  45. Palmer, G., d'Orazio, V., Kenwick, M., & Lane, M. (2015). The MID4 dataset, 2002-2010: Procedures, coding rules and description. Conflict Management and Peace Science, 32(2), 222-242. https://doi.org/10.1177/0738894214559680
  46. Panda, A. (2016, Dec. 12). China Brings More Economic Retaliation for THAAD Against South Korea. The Diplomat. http://thediplomat.com/2016/12/china-brings-more-economic-retaliation-for-thaad-against-south-korea/. Access May 30, 2019.
  47. Putnam, R. D. (1988). Diplomacy and domestic politics: the logic of two-level games. International organization, 42(3), 427-460. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0020818300027697
  48. Selden, Z. A. (1999). Economic sanctions as instruments of American foreign policy. Greenwood Publishing Group.
  49. Shambaugh, D. (2011). Coping with a Conflicted China. The Washington Quarterly, 34(1), 7-27. https://doi.org/10.1080/0163660X.2011.537974
  50. Shan, S. (2016, April 8). Minister sees drop in Chinese tourism. Taipei Times. http://www.taipeitimes.com/News/taiwan/archives/2016/04/08/2003643476. Access May 30, 2019.
  51. Sina. (2016, Sep. 20). Hai xiehui zhang: Dalu mei guankong fu tai youke tamen zixuan dao na wan[The president of the ARA: not controlling the tourists to Taiwan for where do they choose to play]. Sina. http://news.sina.com.cn/c/gat/2016-09-20/doc-ifxvyqvy6871065.shtml. Access May 30, 2019.
  52. Smith, N. (2016, Nov. 16). China Is Using Tourism to Hit Taiwan Where It Really Hurts. Time. http://time.com/4574290/china-taiwan-tourism-tourists/. Access May 30, 2019.
  53. Straits Times. (2017, Feb. 25) China appoints new economic chiefs. Straits Times. http://www.straitstimes.com/asia/east-asia/china-appoints-new-economic-chiefs. Access May 30, 2019.
  54. Tourism Bureau. (2019, May 13). Di 1-6 pi dali zutuan lu hang ye mingdan (31 ge sheng (zizhiqu, zhixiashi)311 she) [The 1-6th batch of mainland group travel industry list (31 provinces (autonomous regions, municipalities directly under the central government) 311)]. Tourism Bureau, M.O.T.C Republic of China (Taiwan). http://admin.taiwan.net.tw/public/public.aspx?no=163. Access May 30, 2019.
  55. Weede, E. (2010). The Capitalist Peace and the Rise of China: Establishing Global Harmony by Economic Interdependence. International Interactions, 36(2), 206-213. https://doi.org/10.1080/03050621003785181
  56. Weiss, J.C. (2013). Authoritarian signaling, mass audiences, and nationalist protest in China. International Organization, 67(1), 1-35. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0020818312000380
  57. Woody, C. (2017, Mar 20). China is going after South Korea's wallet in their dispute over the THAAD missile system. Business Insider. http://www.businessinsider.com/china-south-korea-economic-boycott-protests-over-thaad-missile-system-2017-3. Access May 30, 2019.
  58. Xiang, J, Christopher B Primiano and Wei-hao Huang. (2015). Aggressive or Peaceful Rise? An Empirical Assessment of China's Militarized Conflict, 1979-2010. Peace Economics, Peace Science and Public Policy, 21(3), 301-325.
  59. Xinhua. (2017, Oct. 22) Shijiu da shouquan fabu: Zhongguo gongchandang di shijiu jie zhongyang jilu jiancha weiyuanhui weiyuan mingdan [Authorized to issue by the 19th National Congress: List of members of the 19th Central Commission for Discipline Inspection of the Communist Party of China]. Xinhua. http://news.xinhuanet.com/politics/19cpcnc/2017-10/24/c_1121848898.htm?baike. Access May 30, 2019.
  60. Yang, H., & Jin, H. (2017, June 6). As missile row drags on, South Korea's Lotte still stymied in China. Reuters. https://www.reuters.com/article/lotte-china/as-missile-row-drags-on-south-koreas-lotte-still-stymied-in-china-idUSL3N1JC3BA. Access May 30, 2019.
  61. Yang, H., & Jin, H. (2017, October 31). China, South Korea agree to mend ties after THAAD standoff. CNBC. https://www.cnbc.com/2017/10/30/south-korea-china-agree-to-normalize-relations-after-thaad-fallout.html. Access May 30, 2019.
  62. Yang, Y. E., & Liu, X. (2012). The ‘China Threat’ through the lens of US print media: 1992-2006. Journal of Contemporary China, 21(76), 695-711. https://doi.org/10.1080/10670564.2012.666838
  63. Yu, Z. (2017, Feb. 29) Letian rang de han jun bushu sa de zhongguo guan mei xu dizhi [Lotte makes the Korean army deploy THAAD Chinese official media appealed against Lotte]. Zaobao. http://www.zaobao.com.sg/realtime/china/story20170228-730226. Access May 30, 2019.
  64. Zhao, S. (2013). Foreign Policy Implications of Chinese Nationalism Revisited: the strident turn. Journal of Contemporary China, 22(82), 535-553. https://doi.org/10.1080/10670564.2013.766379