Journal of Cadastre & Land InformatiX (지적과 국토정보)

LX Spatial Information Research Institute (한국국토정보공사 공간정보연구원)
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Analysis on the Effect of Regional Characteristics and Housing Market Characteristics on Population Growth

지역 및 주택 시장 특성이 인구 증가에 미치는 영향 분석

  • Oh, Sang-Ho (Housing & Urban research Institute of Youngsan University) ;
  • Suh, Jeong-Yeal (Department of Real estate, Youngsan University)
  • 오상호 (영산대학교 주택도시연구소) ;
  • 서정렬 (영산대학교 부동산학과)
  • Received : 2019.05.03
  • Accepted : 2019.06.18
  • Published : 2019.06.30
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Abstract

The purpose of this study is to grasp factors the increasing population growth rate of the region through the regional and housing market characteristics. This paper has used multiple regression as the dependent variable (average of the population growth rate of 85cities during the last five years) and the independent variables analyzed the regional and housing market characteristics on the average. The results of the analysis, The regional and housing market variables that have had a significant impact on the regional population growth rate over the last five years are birth rate, employment rate, production available population growth rate, apartment rate, resale rights rate, and apartment turnover rate and the number of businesses per thousand and has decreased. In other words, The regions where the population increased by region for the last five years were the ones with the transfer of public institutions (innovation cities) and land development among the Seoul metropolitan area and non-Seoul metropolitan area excluding Seoul and metropolitan cities. The results of this study is intentional to suggest Policy point of view for the balanced regional development presented at the government level for other the metropolitan area, such as the small and medium cities that are undergoing population decline.

본 연구의 목적은 최근 감소하고 있는 우리나라 인구 증감 현상에 대해 지역 및 주택 시장 특성을 통해 인구 증감 요인을 파악하는 데 있다. 전국 85개시의 최근 5년간 지역별 인구 증가율 평균을 종속 변수로 하고 최근 5년 간 지역 및 주택 시장 특성 요인 변수들의 평균을 독립변수로 하는 다중회귀를 분석 방법으로 활용하였다. 분석결과, 최근 5년 간 지역별 인구 증가율에 유의미한 영향을 미친 지역 및 주택 시장 변수는 출산율, 고용률, 생산 가능 인구 증가율, 아파트 비율, 분양권 전매 비율, 아파트 거래 회전 증가율, 천인당 사업체 수 등이었으며 최근 5년 간 지역별 인구가 증가한 지역으로는 서울과 광역시를 제외한 수도권 일부와 비수도권 지방 중 공공 기관 이전(혁신도시), 택지개발 등이 있는 지역들이었다. 따라서 분석 결과를 종합할 때 지역의 인구를 증가시키기 위해서는 안정된 일자리와 그와 연계된 적절한 주택 공급이 전제 되어야 함을 의미한다. 본 연구의 이러한 연구 결과는 인구감소를 겪고 있는 지방 중소도시 등 수도권 이외 지역 등을 위한 정부 차원에서 지역 균형발전을 위한 정책적 시사점을 제시하였다는 점에 연구의 의의가 있다고 할 수 있다.

Keywords

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Figure 1. Total population and Total population increasing rate(1992-2018)

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Figure 2. 5 years Total population and Total population increasing rete (2014-2018)

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Figure 3. Regional Total population increasing rate (2014-2018)

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Figure 4. Regional Total increasing rete (2014-2018)

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Figure 5. Regional Total population increasing rete (2014-2018)

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Figure 6. Regional Housing Market Characteristic

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Figure 7. Regional Housing Market Characteristic

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Figure 8. Regional Housing Market Characteristic

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Figure 9. Regional Housing Market Characteristic

Table 1. Regional population increasing ratio (5years average 2014-2018)

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Table 2. Regional Housing Market Characteristic

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Table 3. Variable Selection

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Table 4. Variable Basic Statistics

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Table 5. Correlation Analysis

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Table 6. Summary of Multiple Regression Analysis Extraction on Regional population increasing rate

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