Fig. 1. Locations of the study area and research point
Fig. 2. Flowchart of the modeling processes, used in this study.
Fig. 3. Comparison of simulated reservoir water level and capacity curve with observed one.
Fig. 4. Comparison of observed and simulated (a) water level and (b) water temperature
Fig. 5. Comparison of observed and simulated water temperature profiles (2007)
Fig. 6. Historical (2005-2015), and projected (2016-2070) monthly water temperature, at the upper and lower layer in Soyanggang Reservoir.
Fig. 7. Projected seasonal variations of annual water temperatures, at the upper and lower layer of the reservoir, in the future.
Fig. 8. Calender heatmap showing averaged daily water temperature 2005-2070, at the (a) upper layer and the (b) lower layer.
Fig. 9. (a) Schmidt stability 2016-2070 and (b) number of stratification formation days.
Fig. 10. (a) Temperature dependence of growth rates for phytoplankton groups, (b) comparison of monthly phytoplankton growth rates between historical and projected periods.
Table 1. Statistical indices used to evaluate the model accuracy
Table 2. Average air temperature and reservoir water temperature, at the upper and lower layer in Soyanggang Reservoir, for historical and projection periods.
Table 3. Monthly historical and projected upper water temperatures and their difference.
Table 4. Monthly historical and projected lower water temperatures and their difference.
Table 5. Seasonal upper and lower water temperature and rise rate (2016~2070)
Table 6. Seasonal upper-lower water temperature differences (2016 ~ 2070)
Table 7. Average water temperature on the specified date 2005-2070, at the upper and lower layers
Table 8. Parameters used for calculating the growth rate of each phytoplankton group
Table 9. Comparison of growth rates of each phytoplankton group as a function of water temperature between historical and projected periods.unit: /d
참고문헌
- Ahn, S. R., Kim, S. H., Yoon, S. W., and Kim, S. J. (2014). Evaluation of future turbidity water and eutrophication in Chungju lake by climate change using CE-QUAL-W2, Journal of Korea Water Resources Association, 47(2), 145-159. https://doi.org/10.3741/JKWRA.2014.47.2.145
- Arnold, J. G., Moriasi, D. N., Gassman, P. W., Abbaspour, K. C., White, M. J., Srinivasan, R., Santhi, C., Harmel, R. D., Griensven, A. V., Liew, M. W. V., Kannan, N., and Jha, M. K. (2012). SWAT: Model use, calibration, and validation, Transactions of the ASABE, 55(4), 1491-1508. https://doi.org/10.13031/2013.42256
- Bae, D. H., Jung, I. W., and Kwon, W. T. (2007). Generation of high scenarios for climate impacts on water resources (I): climate scenarios on each sub-basins, Journal of Korea Water Resources Association. 40(3), 191-204. [Korean Literature] https://doi.org/10.3741/JKWRA.2007.40.3.191
- Borsuk, M., Clemen, R., Maguire, L., and Reckhow, K. (2001). Stakeholder values and scientific modeling in the Neuse River watershed, Group Decision and Negotiation, 10(4), 355-373. https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1011231801266
- Bowen, J. D. and Hieronymus, J. W. (2003). A CE-QUAL-W2 model of Neuse Estuary for total maximum daily load development, Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management, 129(4), 283-294. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)0733-9496(2003)129:4(283)
- Bronstert, A. (2003). Floods and climate change: interactions and impacts, Risk Analysis: An International Journal, 23(3), 545-557. https://doi.org/10.1111/1539-6924.00335
- Butcher, J. B., Nover, D., Johnson, T. E., and Clark, C. M. (2015). Sensitivity of lake thermal and mixing dynamics to climate change, Climatic Change, 129(1-2), 295-305. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-015-1326-1
- Chapra, S. C., Boehlert, B., Fant, C., Bierman Jr, V. J., Henderson, J., Mills, D., Mas, D. M. L., Rennels, L., Jantarasami, L., Martinich, J., Strzepek, K. M., and Paerl, H. W. (2017). Climate change impacts on harmful algal blooms in US freshwaters: a screening-level assessment, Environmental Science & Technology, 51(16), 8933-8943. https://doi.org/10.1021/acs.est.7b01498
- Chung, S. W. and Park, H. S. (2017). Introduction of turbid water reduction and management technology development for extreme events, Korea Water Resource Association, 50(6), 50-57.
- Chung, S. W., Park, H. S., Yoon, S. W., and Ryu, I. G. (2011). Effect of installing a selective withdrawal structure for the control of turbid water in Soyang reservoir, Journal of Korean Society on Water Environment, 27(6), 743-753. [Korean Literature]
- Choi, J., Ahn, J., Kim, K. S., and Lim, K. J. (2007). Evaluation of SWAT Applicability to simulation of sediment behaviors at the Imha-Dam watershed, Journal of Korean Society on Water Environment, 23(4), 467-473. [Korean Literature]
- Cole, T. M., and Wells, S. A. (2017). CE-QUAL-W2: A two-dimensional, laterally averaged, hydrodynamic and water quality model, version 4.1, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering Portland State Univeristy.
- Debele, B., Srinivasan, R., and Parlange, J. Y. (2008). Coupling upland watershed and downstream waterbody hydrodynamic and water quality models (SWAT and CE-QUAL-W2) for better water resources management in complex river basins, Environmental Modeling & Assessment, 13(1), 135-153. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10666-006-9075-1
- Edwards, K. F., Thomas, M. K., Klausmeier, C. A., and Litchman, E. (2016). Phytoplankton growth and the interaction of light and temperature: A synthesis at the species and community level, Limnology and Oceanography, 61(4), 1232-1244. https://doi.org/10.1002/lno.10282
- Fang, X. and Stefan, H. G. (2009). Simulations of climate effects on water temperature, dissolved oxygen, and ice and snow covers in lakes of the contiguous US under past and future climate scenarios, Limnology and Oceanography, 54(6part2), 2359-2370. https://doi.org/10.4319/lo.2009.54.6_part_2.2359
- Han, J. H., Lee, D. J., Kang, B. S., Chung, S. W., Jang, W. S., Lim, K. J., and Kim, J. G. (2017). Potential Impacts of Future Extreme Storm Events on Streamflow and Sediment in Soyangdam Watershed, Journal of Korean Society on Water Environment, 33(2), 160-169. [Korean Literature] https://doi.org/10.15681/KSWE.2017.33.2.160
- Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). (2007). Climate change 2007: The physical science basis. Agenda, 6(07), 333.
- Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). (2014). Mitigation of climate change, Contribution of Working Group III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 1454.
- Jung, I. W., Bae, D. H., and Kim, G. (2011). Recent trends of mean and extreme precipitation in Korea, International journal of climatology, 31(3), 359-370. [Korean Literature] https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.2068
- Joung, S. H., Park, H. K., Lee, H. J. and Lee, S. H., (2013). Effect of climate change for diatom bloom at winter and spring season in Mulgeum station of the Nakdong river, South Korea, Journal of Korean Society on Water Environment, 29(2), 155-164. [Korean Literature]
- Kang, B. and Moon, S. (2017). Regional hydro climatic projection using an coupled composite downscaling model with statistical bias corrector, KSCE Journal of Civil Engineering, 21(7), 2991-3002. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12205-017-1176-7
- Kim, B. C. and Kim, Y. H. (2004). Articles : phosphorus cycle in a deep reservoir in Asian Monsoon Area(Lake Soyang, Korea) and the modeling with a 2-D hydrodynamic water quality model [CE-QUAL-W2], Korean Journal of Limnology, 37(2), 205-212. [Korean Literature]
- Kim, B. S., Kwon, H. H., and Kim, H. S. (2011). Impact assessment of climate change on drought risk, Journal of Wetlands Researh, 1, 9. [Korean Literature]
- Kim, Y. H., Kim, B. C., Choi, K. S., and Seo, D. I. (2001). Modeling of Thermal Stratification and Transport of Density Flow in Soyang Reservoir Using the 2-D Hydrodynamic Water Quality Model, CE-QUAL-W2, Journal of the Korean Society of Water and Wastewater, 18, 96-105. [Korean Literature]
-
Kosten, S., Roland, F., Da Motta Marques, D. M., Van Nes, E. H., Mazzeo, N., Sternberg, L. D. S., Scheffer, M., and Cole, J. J. (2010). Climate dependent
$CO_2$ emissions from lakes, Global Biogeochemical Cycles, 24(2). - Kundzewicz, Z. W., Kanae, S., Seneviratne, S. I., Handmer, J., Nicholls, N., Peduzzi, P., Mechler, R., Bouwer, L. M., Arnell, N., Mach, K., Muir-Wood, R. Brakenridge, G. R., Kron, W., Benito, G., Honda, Y., Takahashi, K., and Sherstyukov, B. (2014). Flood risk and climate change: global and regional perspectives, Hydrological Sciences Journal, 59(1), 1-28. https://doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2013.857411
- K-water. (1994). Research report on the reservoir of Soyang river dam. [Korean Literature]
- K-water. (2007). Multipurpose dam (four dams including Soyanggang Dam) Establishment of turbid water reduction plan (Soyanggang Dam). [Korean Literature]
- Lee, K. H. (2016). Prediction of climate-induced water temperature using nonlinear air-water temperature relationship for aquatic environments, Journal of Environmental Science International, 25(6), 877-888. [Korean Literature] https://doi.org/10.5322/JESI.2016.25.6.877
- Lee, J. W., Eom, J. S., Kim, B. C., Jang, W. S., Ryu, J. C., Kang, H. W., Kim, K. S.. and Lim, K. J. (2011). Water quality prediction at mandae watershed using SWAT and water quality improvement with Vegetated Filter Strip. Journal of the Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers, 53(1), 37-45. [Korean Literature] https://doi.org/10.5389/KSAE.2011.53.1.037
- Martin, J. L., McCutcheon, S. C., and Schottman, R. W. (1999). Dynamic modeling of estuaries, In Hydrodynamics and Transport for Water Quality Modeling, CRC Press, 521-770.
- Neitsch, S. L., Arnold, J. G., Kiniry, J. R., and Williams, J. R. (2009). Soil and water assessment tool theoretical documentation version 2009, Texas Water Resources Institute.
- Noh, S., Park, H., Choi, H., and Lee, J. (2014). Effect of Climate Change for cyanobacteria growth pattern in chudong station of lake Daechung, Journal of Korean Society on Water Environment, 30(4), 377-385. [Korean Literature] https://doi.org/10.15681/KSWE.2014.30.4.377
- Paerl, H. W., Hall, N. S., and Calandrino, E. S. (2011). Controlling harmful cyanobacterial blooms in a world experiencing anthropogenic and climatic-induced change, Science of the Total Environment, 409(10), 1739-1745. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2011.02.001
- Paerl, H. W. and Huisman, J. (2009). Climate change: a catalyst for global expansion of harmful cyanobacterial blooms, Environmental microbiology reports, 1(1), 27-37. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1758-2229.2008.00004.x
- Paerl, H. W. and Otten, T. G. (2013). Harmful cyanobacterial blooms: causes, consequences, and controls, Microbial ecology, 65(4), 995-1010. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00248-012-0159-y
- Paerl, H. W. and Paul, V. J. (2012). Climate change: links to global expansion of harmful cyanobacteria, Water research, 46(5), 1349-1363. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.watres.2011.08.002
-
Park, H. and Chung, S. (2018).
$pCO_2$ Dynamics of Stratified Reservoir in Temperate Zone and$CO_2$ Pulse Emissions During Turnover Events, Water, 10(10), 1347. https://doi.org/10.3390/w10101347 - Park, H., Chung, S., Cho, E., and Lim, K. (2018). Impact of climate change on the persistent turbidity issue of a large dam reservoir in the temperate monsoon region, Climatic Change, 151(3-4), 365-378. [Korean Literature] https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-018-2322-z
- Park, J., Jang, Y., and Seo, D. (2017). Water quality prediction of inflow of the Yongdam Dam basin and its reservoir using SWAT and CE-QUAL-W2 models in series to climate change scenarios, Journal of Korea Water Resources Association, 50(10), 703-714. https://doi.org/10.3741/JKWRA.2017.50.10.703
- Sahoo, G. B., Schladow, S. G., Reuter, J. E., and Coats, R. (2011). Effects of climate change on thermal properties of lakes and reservoirs, and possible implications, Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment, 25(4), 445-456. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00477-010-0414-z
- Sheffield, J., and Wood, E. F. (2008). Projected changes in drought occurrence under future global warming from multi-model, multi-scenario, IPCC AR4 simulations, Climate dynamics, 31(1), 79-105. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-007-0340-z
- Trenberth, K. E., Dai, A., Van Der Schrier, G., Jones, P. D., Barichivich, J., Briffa, K. R., and Sheffield, J. (2013). Global warming and changes in drought, Nature Climate Change, 4(1), 17. https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2067
- Wagner, C., and Adrian, R. (2009). Cyanobacteria dominance: quantifying the effects of climate change, Limnology and Oceanography, 54(6part2), 2460-2468. https://doi.org/10.4319/lo.2009.54.6_part_2.2460
- Wetzel, R. G. (2001). Limnology: lake and river ecosystems, gulf professional publishing.
- Winslow, L., Read, J., Woolway, R., Brentrup, J., Leach, T., Zwart, J., Albert, S., and Collinge, D. (2018). Package 'rLakeAnalyzer'.
- Ye, L., Yoon, S. W., and Chung, S. W. (2008). Application of SWAT for the estimation of soil loss in the Daecheong Dam Basin, Journal of Korea Water Resources Association, 41(2), 149-162. [Korean Literature] https://doi.org/10.3741/JKWRA.2008.41.2.149
- Yi, H. S., Kim, D. S., Hwang, M. H., and An, K. G. (2016). Assessment of runoff and water temperature variations under RCP climate change scenario in Yongdam dam watershed, South Korea, Journal of Korean Society on Water Environment, 32(2), 173-182. [Korean Literature] https://doi.org/10.15681/KSWE.2016.32.2.173
- Yu, J. J., Lee, H. J., Lee, K. L., Lyu, H. S., Whang, J. H., Shin, L. Y., and Chen, S. U. (2014). Relationship between Distribution of the Dominant Phytoplankton Species and Water Temperature in the Nakdong River, Korea, The Korean Society Of Limnology, 47(4). 247-257. [Korean Literature]