Journal of the Korean GEO-environmental Society (한국지반환경공학회 논문집)

Korean Geo-Environmental Society (한국지반환경공학회)
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Comparison of Prediction Models for Identification of Areas at Risk of Landslides due to Earthquake and Rainfall

지진 및 강우로 인한 산사태 발생 위험지 예측 모델 비교

  • Jeon, Seongkon (Department of Civil Engineering, Yeoju Institute of Technology) ;
  • Baek, Seungcheol (Department of Civil Engineering, Andong National University)
  • Received : 2019.04.24
  • Accepted : 2019.05.20
  • Published : 2019.06.01
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Abstract

In this study, the hazard areas are identified by using the Newmark displacement model, which is a predictive model for identifying the areas at risk of landslide triggered by earthquakes, based on the results of field survey and laboratory test, and literature data. The Newmark displacement model mainly utilizes earthquake and slope related data, and the safety of slope stability derived from LSMAP, which is a landslide prediction program. Backyang Mt. in Busan where the landslide has already occurred, was chosen as the study area of this research. As a result of this study, the area of landslide prone zone identified by using the Newmark displacement model without earthquake factor is about 1.15 times larger than that identified by using LSMAP.

본 연구에서는 현장조사, 실내시험 및 문헌자료를 기초로 지진 시 산사태 발생 위험지 예측 모델인 Newmark displacement model을 이용하여 위험지를 예측하였다. Newmark displacement model은 주로 지진의 정보와 해당 지역의 사면의 정보를 통해 산정되며, 사면의 안전율은 산지 토사재해 예측 프로그램인 LSMAP의 결과를 활용하였다. 연구대상 지역으로 과거 산사태가 발생한 부산의 백양산 일대를 선정하였다. 산사태 발생 해석 결과 Newmark displacement model을 활용한 지진 시 산사태 위험지 예측이 지진 계수가 미적용된 LSMAP의 산사태 위험지 예측보다 약 1.15배 넓은 지역을 위험지역으로 예측하는 것으로 나타났다.

Keywords

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Fig. 1. Trends in occurrence of earthquake (KMA, 2018)

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Fig. 2. Geologic map of study area (KIGAM, 1978)

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Fig. 3. Exploration survey line

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Fig. 4. Section showing seismic velocity variation

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Fig. 5. Sliding block representation of Newmark displacement model. ac : yield acceleration, a : base acceleration, α : angle (Jibson & Keefer, 1994)

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Fig. 6. Tree resources evaluation program

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Fig. 7. Results of forecasting of landslide hazard areas

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Fig. 8. Overlapping of landslide risk area to be analyzed by using the LSMAP and Newmark displacement model

Table 1. Rainfall history by year (KMA, 2017)

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Table 2. Stability class definitions of LSMAP

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Table 3. Unit weight and cohesion of soil (National Disaster Management Research Institute, 2004)

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Table 4. Parameters used for analysis

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Table 5. Comparison of the predictions of landslide hazard area according to whether earthquake coefficient is applied

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