Journal of the Korean Solar Energy Society (한국태양에너지학회 논문집)

The Korean Solar Energy Society (한국태양에너지학회)
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Evaluation of UM-LDAPS Prediction Model for Daily Ahead Forecast of Solar Power Generation

태양광 발전 예보를 위한 UM-LDAPS 예보 모형 성능평가

  • Kim, Chang Ki (New and Renewable Energy Resource & Policy Center, Korea Institute of Energy Research) ;
  • Kim, Hyun-Goo (New and Renewable Energy Resource & Policy Center, Korea Institute of Energy Research) ;
  • Kang, Yong-Heack (New and Renewable Energy Resource & Policy Center, Korea Institute of Energy Research) ;
  • Yun, Chang-Yeol (New and Renewable Energy Resource & Policy Center, Korea Institute of Energy Research)
  • 김창기 (한국에너지기술연구원 신재생에너지자원.정책센터) ;
  • 김현구 (한국에너지기술연구원 신재생에너지자원.정책센터) ;
  • 강용혁 (한국에너지기술연구원 신재생에너지자원.정책센터) ;
  • 윤창열 (한국에너지기술연구원 신재생에너지자원.정책센터)
  • Received : 2019.03.05
  • Accepted : 2019.04.26
  • Published : 2019.04.30
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Abstract

Daily ahead forecast is necessary for the electricity balance between load and supply due to the variability renewable energy. Numerical weather prediction is usually employed to produce the solar irradiance as well as electric power forecast for more than 12 hours forecast horizon. UM-LDAPS model is the numerical weather prediction operated by Korea Meteorological Administration and it generates the 36 hours forecast of hourly total irradiance 4 times a day. This study attempts to evaluate the model performance against the in situ measurements at 37 ground stations from January to May, 2013. Relative mean bias error, mean absolute error and root mean square error of hourly total irradiance are averaged over all ground stations as being 8.2%, 21.2% and 29.6%, respectively. The behavior of mean bias error appears to be different; positively largest in Chupoongnyeong station but negatively largest in Daegu station. The distinct contrast might be attributed to the limitation of microphysics parameterization for thick and thin clouds in the model.

Keywords

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Fig. 1 Domain for UM-LDAPS model and locations of 37 ground observing stations

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Fig. 2 Operational Time Schedule for UM-LDAPS model

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Fig. 3 Horizontal distribution of rMBE averages (%) between forecasted and observed hourly total irradiance from January to May, 2013

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Fig. 4 Averages of hourly total irradiance from observation (black solid line) and forecast (red solid line) and rMAE (%, histogram) as a function of forecast horizon from January to May, 2013 at Chupoonyeong (upper panel) and Daegu (lower panel) station.

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Fig. 5 Relative Frequency of cloud class from the satellite imagery at Chupoongyeong (Black) and Daegu (Grey) station from January to May, 2013. Partial indicates that cloud fraction is lower than 1.

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Fig. 6 Scatter plot of hourly mean rMBE and Cloud Optical Depth from January to May, 2013 at Chupoongyeong (Left panel) and Daegu (Right panel) station.

Table 1 Station Information and Error statistics for hourly total irradiance forecasted by UM-LDAPS at 12 UTC from January to May, 2013. The meaning of rMBE, rMAE and rRMSE are explained in the main text.

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