Asia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Sciences

  • 제54권4호
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  • Pages.623-637
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  • 2018
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  • 1976-7633(pISSN)
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  • 1976-7951(eISSN)
한국기상학회 (Korean Meteorological Society)
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DOI QR코드

DOI QR Code

Effects of Resolution, Cumulus Parameterization Scheme, and Probability Forecasting on Precipitation Forecasts in a High-Resolution Limited-Area Ensemble Prediction System

  • On, Nuri (Atmospheric Predictability and Data Assimilation Laboratory, Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Yonsei University) ;
  • Kim, Hyun Mee (Atmospheric Predictability and Data Assimilation Laboratory, Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Yonsei University) ;
  • Kim, SeHyun (Atmospheric Predictability and Data Assimilation Laboratory, Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Yonsei University)
  • 투고 : 2017.10.22
  • 심사 : 2018.04.30
  • 발행 : 2018.11.30
⟨ 이전 논문 다음 논문 ⟩

초록

This study investigates the effects of horizontal resolution, cumulus parameterization scheme (CPS), and probability forecasting on precipitation forecasts over the Korean Peninsula from 00 UTC 15 August to 12 UTC 14 September 2013, using the limited-area ensemble prediction system (LEPS) of the Korea Meteorological Administration. To investigate the effect of resolution, the control members of the LEPS with 1.5- and 3-km resolution were compared. Two 3-km experiments with and without the CPS were conducted for the control member, because a 3-km resolution lies within the gray zone. For probability forecasting, 12 ensemble members with 3-km resolution were run using the LEPS. The forecast performance was evaluated for both the whole study period and precipitation cases categorized by synoptic forcing. The performance of precipitation forecasts using the 1.5-km resolution was better than that using the 3-km resolution for both the total period and individual cases. The result of the 3-km resolution experiment with the CPS did not differ significantly from that without it. The 3-km ensemble mean and probability matching (PM) performed better than the 3-km control member, regardless of the use of the CPS. The PM complemented the defect of the ensemble mean, which better predicts precipitation regions but underestimates precipitation amount by averaging ensembles, compared to the control member. Further, both the 3-km ensemble mean and PM outperformed the 1.5-km control member, which implies that the lower performance of the 3-km control member compared to the 1.5-km control member was complemented by probability forecasting.

키워드

과제정보

연구 과제 주관 기관 : National Research Foundation of Korea (NRF), Korea Meteorological Administration

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피인용 문헌

  1. Effects of horizontal resolution and air-sea flux parameterization on the intensity and structure of simulated Typhoon Haiyan (2013) vol.19, pp.7, 2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1509-2019