Environmental and Resource Economics Review (자원ㆍ환경경제연구)

Korean Resource Economics Association (한국자원경제학회)
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The Local Effects of Coal-fired Power Plant Shutdown on PM2.5 Concentration: Evidence from a Policy Experiment in Korea

노후 석탄화력발전소 가동중단에 따른 발전소 주변지역의 초미세먼지 농도 감소효과 분석

  • Received : 2018.02.08
  • Accepted : 2018.04.11
  • Published : 2018.06.30
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Abstract

Korean government temporarily shut down the coal-fired power plants built before 30 years and more from 6/1/2017 to 6/31/2017. This treatment provides a credible natural experiment regarding the regional $PM_{2.5}$ concentration and coal-fired generators. Based on this feature of the treatment, this study analyzed the causality between the old coal-fired power plants and regional $PM_{2.5}$ concentration. To be specific, we categorized two pollution monitoring stations nearby coal-fired power plants in Yeongdong into a treatment station and a control station based on the distance from the power plants. The control station is similar to the treatment station geographically and topographically, but its $PM_{2.5}$ concentration would not be directly affected by coal-fired power plants in Yeongdong. A difference-in-difference method was applied to identify the effects of the old coal-fire power plants on regional $PM_{2.5}$ concentration. The results show that the temporary shutdown would decrease $PM_{2.5}$ concentration nearby coal-fired power plants in Yeongdong by $3.7{\sim}4.4{\mu}g/m^3$.

정부는 준공된 지 30년 이상 경과한 8기의 노후 석탄화력발전소를 2017년 6월 한 달간 가동중단하였다. 이번 정부의 조치는 일종의 정책실험으로 자연실험에 가까운 특성을 가지고 있다. 본고는 이러한 정책실험의 특성을 이용하여 가동중단 조치에 따른 초미세먼지 농도변화의 인과적 효과를 분석하였다. 이를 위해 본 연구에서는 정책대상 발전기 중 2기가 위치한 영동 화력발전소 인근 지점을 실험군으로, 그곳에서 약 40km 거리를 가진 삼척 지점을 대조군으로 하여 이중차분법을 실행하였다. 해당 대조군은 발전소 지역과 지리적, 지형적 특성은 유사하나 해당 발전소에서 배출된 초미세먼지로부터의 직접적인 영향은 크지 않다는 특징을 가지고 있다. 분석 결과, 이번 가동중단 조치로 영동석탄화력발전소 주변지역은 $3.7{\sim}4.4{\mu}g/m^3$의 초미세먼지 농도 감소효과가 발생한 것으로 분석되었다.

Keywords

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