Journal of Korean Society for Atmospheric Environment (한국대기환경학회지)

Korean Society for Atmospheric Environment (한국대기환경학회)
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Evaluation of the Simulated PM2.5 Concentrations using Air Quality Forecasting System according to Emission Inventories - Focused on China and South Korea

대기질 예보 시스템의 입력 배출목록에 따른 PM2.5 모의 성능 평가 - 중국 및 한국을 중심으로

  • Choi, Ki-Chul (Air Quality Forecasting Center, National Institute of Environmental Research) ;
  • Lim, Yongjae (Air Quality Forecasting Center, National Institute of Environmental Research) ;
  • Lee, Jae-Bum (Air Quality Forecasting Center, National Institute of Environmental Research) ;
  • Nam, Kipyo (Air Quality Forecasting Center, National Institute of Environmental Research) ;
  • Lee, Hansol (Air Quality Forecasting Center, National Institute of Environmental Research) ;
  • Lee, Yonghee (Air Quality Forecasting Center, National Institute of Environmental Research) ;
  • Myoung, Jisu (Air Quality Forecasting Center, National Institute of Environmental Research) ;
  • Kim, Taehee (Air Quality Forecasting Center, National Institute of Environmental Research) ;
  • Jang, Limseok (Air Quality Forecasting Center, National Institute of Environmental Research) ;
  • Kim, Jeong Soo (Air Quality Forecasting Center, National Institute of Environmental Research) ;
  • Woo, Jung-Hun (College of Global Integrated Studies, Konkuk University) ;
  • Kim, Soontae (Department of Environmental & Safety Engineering, Ajou University) ;
  • Choi, Kwang-Ho (Department of General Education, Namseoul University)
  • 최기철 (국립환경과학원 대기질통합예보센터) ;
  • 임용재 (국립환경과학원 대기질통합예보센터) ;
  • 이재범 (국립환경과학원 대기질통합예보센터) ;
  • 남기표 (국립환경과학원 대기질통합예보센터) ;
  • 이한솔 (국립환경과학원 대기질통합예보센터) ;
  • 이용희 (국립환경과학원 대기질통합예보센터) ;
  • 명지수 (국립환경과학원 대기질통합예보센터) ;
  • 김태희 (국립환경과학원 대기질통합예보센터) ;
  • 장임석 (국립환경과학원 대기질통합예보센터) ;
  • 김정수 (국립환경과학원 대기질통합예보센터) ;
  • 우정헌 (건국대학교 글로벌융합대학 융합인재학부) ;
  • 김순태 (아주대학교 환경공학과) ;
  • 최광호 (남서울대학교 교양과정부)
  • Received : 2018.02.09
  • Accepted : 2018.03.05
  • Published : 2018.04.30
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Abstract

Emission inventory is the essential component for improving the performance of air quality forecasting system. This study evaluated the simulated daily mean $PM_{2.5}$ concentrations in South Korea and China for 1-year period (Sept. 2016~Aug. 2017) using air quality forecasting system which was applied by the emission inventory of E2015 (predicted CAPSS 2015 for South Korea and KORUS 2015 v1 for the other regions). To identify the impacts of emissions on the simulated $PM_{2.5}$, the emission inventory replaced by E2010 (CAPSS 2010 and MIX 2010) were also applied under the same forecasting conditions. These results showed that simulated daily mean $PM_{2.5}$ concentrations had generally suitable performance with both emission data-sets for China (IOA>0.87, R>0.87) and South Korea (IOA>0.84, R>0.76). The impacts of the changes in emission inventories on simulated daily mean $PM_{2.5}$ concentrations were quantitatively estimated. In China, normalized mean bias (NMB) showed 5.5% and 26.8% under E2010 and E2015, respectively. The tendency of overestimated concentrations was larger in North Central and Southeast China than other regions under both E2010 and E2015. Seasonal differences of NMB were higher in non-winter season (28.3% (E2010)~39.3% (E2015)) than winter season (-0.5% (E2010)~8.0% (E2015)). In South Korea, NMB showed -5.4% and 2.8% for all days, but -15.2% and -11.2% for days below $40{\mu}g/m^3$ to minimize the impacts of long-range transport under E2010 and E2015, respectively. For all days, simulated $PM_{2.5}$ concentrations were overestimated in Seoul, Incheon, Southern part of Gyeonggi and Daejeon, and underestimated in other regions such as Jeonbuk, Ulsan, Busan and Gyeongnam, regardless of what emission inventories were applied. Our results suggest that the updated emission inventory, which reflects current status of emission amounts and spatio-temporal allocations, is needed for improving the performance of air quality forecasting.

Keywords

References

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