Journal of Korea Water Resources Association (한국수자원학회논문집)

Korea Water Resources Association (한국수자원학회)
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Analysis of the relationship among water-efficiency in the non-agricultural sector, economic growth, electricity generation, and CO2 emission - evidence from Korea -

우리나라에서 비농업 부문의 물 효율성, 경제성장, 전력생산 및 CO2배출 간의 관계 분석

  • 정용훈 (고려대학교 공공정책대학 경제통계학부 경제정책학과) ;
  • 이성훈 (고려대학교 공공정책대학 경제통계학부 경제정책학과)
  • Received : 2018.08.12
  • Accepted : 2018.10.24
  • Published : 2018.12.31
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Abstract

We have examined dynamic relationships among water-efficiency, economic growth, electricity generation, and $CO_2$ emissions in Korea using various time-series analysis methods for 1990-2014. While previous studies have been limited to economic growth, $CO_2$ emissions, and electricity generation, this study contributed to explain the relationship between existing variables and water-efficiency. We find that the four variables reach a balanced state in the long run through short-term adjustment, $CO_2$ emissions and economic growth are responsible for water efficiency, and that $CO_2$ emissions, economic growth and water efficiency are the causes of electricity generation. The long-term impact coefficient estimates on water-efficiency show that the increase in electricity generation and the decrease in $CO_2$ emissions increase water-efficiency. Although economic growth has increased water-efficiency, moreover, we have identified an inverted U-shaped relationship between economic growth and water-efficiency, which suggests that economic growth above a certain level reduces the rate of increase in water-efficiency.

본 연구는 우리나라의 1990-2014년 시계열 자료를 활용하여 물 효율성, 경제성장, 전력생산 및 이산화탄소 배출 간의 장 단기 인과관계를 실증적으로 분석하였다. 기존 연구들이 경제성장, 이산화탄소 배출 및 전력 및 에너지에 국한되어 분석을 한 반면 본 연구는 기존 변수들과 더불어 물 효율성과의 관계를 설명하였다는 기여를 가지고 있다. 실증분석결과를 살펴보면, 네 변수들은 단기조정관계를 통해 장기적으로 균형상태에 도달한다는 것과 변수들 간의 인과관계에서 이산화탄소 배출과 경제성장은 물 효율성의 원인이 되고 이산화탄소 배출과 경제성장 및 물 효율성은 전력생산의 원인이 된다는 사실을 발견하였다. 또한 물 효율성에 대한 장기 영향계수 추정결과를 통해 전력생산의 증가와 경제성장 및 이산화탄소 배출의 감소는 물 효율성을 증가시키며, 일정 수준 이상의 경제성장은 물 효율성의 증가속도를 감소시킨다는 경제성장과 물 효율성의 역U자형 관계를 확인하였다.

Keywords

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Fig. 1. Trends in CO2 Emission, Power Generation, GDP, and Water Efficiency

Table 1. Unit root test (t-statistics)

SJOHCI_2018_v51n12_1229_t0001.png 이미지

Table 2. Johansen Cointegration test results (Ct, Et, Gt, [Gt]2, Wt)

SJOHCI_2018_v51n12_1229_t0002.png 이미지

Table 3. Causality results by VECM

SJOHCI_2018_v51n12_1229_t0003.png 이미지

Table 4. Long-term coefficients of water efficiency

SJOHCI_2018_v51n12_1229_t0004.png 이미지

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