The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics (응용통계연구)

The Korean Statistical Society (한국통계학회)
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BMDL of blood lead for ADHD based on two longitudinal data sets

주의력 결핍 과잉 행동장애를 종점으로 하는 혈중 납의 벤치마크 용량 하한 도출: 두 동집단 자료의 병합

  • Kim, Si Yeon (Department of Biostatistics, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill) ;
  • Ha, Mina (Department of Preventive Medicine, College of Medicine, Dankook University) ;
  • Kwon, Hojang (Department of Preventive Medicine, College of Medicine, Dankook University) ;
  • Kim, Byung Soo (Department of Applied Statistics, Yonsei University)
  • Received : 2017.08.03
  • Accepted : 2017.12.27
  • Published : 2018.02.28
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Abstract

The ministry of Environment of Korea initiated two follow-up surveys in 2005 and 2006 to investigate environmental effect on children's health. These two cohorts, referred to as the 2005 Cohort and 2006 Cohort, were followed up three times every two years. This data set was referred to as the Children's Health and Environmental Research (CHEER) data set. This paper reproduces the existing research results of Kim et al. (Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society, 25, 987-998, 2014) and Lee et al. (The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics, 29, 1295-1310, 2016) and derive a benchmark dose lower limit (BMDL) for blood lead level for attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) after pooling two cohort data sets. The different ADHD rating scales were unified by applying the conversion formula proposed by Lee et al. (2016). The random effect model and AR(1) model were built to reflect the longitudinal characteristics and regression to the mean phenomenon. Based on these models the BMDLs for blood lead levels were derived using the BMDL formula and the simulation. We obtained a hight level of BMDLs when we pooled two independent cohort data sets.

우리나라 환경부에서는 지난 2005년과 2006년, 매 2년마다 세 번에 걸친 추적 조사를 하여 두 개의 독립적인 자료를 구축하였고, 2010년에 두 자료를 병합하여 Children's Health and Environmental Research (CHEER) 자료라 명명하였다. 본 연구는 CHEER 자료를 이용한 Kim 등 (Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society, 25, 987-998, 2014)과 Lee 등 (The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics, 29, 1295-1310, 2016)의 후속 연구로서, 두 동집단을 병합한 자료에서도 기존 연구에서 보고되었던 결과가 재현되는지 확인하고 ADHD를 종점으로 한 혈중 납 농도의 95% 신뢰 하한 (BMDL) 도출하였다. Lee 등 (2016)에서 제시한 벌점화 스플라인 모형을 이용하여 모든 년도의 ADHD 척도를 통일하였고, 경시적 자료의 특성과 아동의 나이에 대한 평균으로의 회귀 현상을 반영하여 임의 기울기 모형과 AR(1) 모형을 구축하였다. 두 모형을 바탕으로 혈중 납 농도의 벤치마크 용량 하한을 공식과 모의실험을 이용하여 도출한 결과, 종전의 연구보다 작은 벤치마크 용량의 분산 값으로 인하여 벤치마크 용량 하한 값이 증가한다는 사실을 확인할 수 있었다.

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