KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research (대한토목학회논문집)

Korean Society of Civil Engeneers (대한토목학회)
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Impact Assessment of Climate Change on Disaster Risk in North Korea based on RCP8.5 Climate Change Scenario

RCP8.5 기후변화시나리오를 이용한 기후변화가 북한의 재해위험에 미치는 영향 평가

  • 정세진 (국립강원대학교 도시.환경방재공학전공) ;
  • 김병식 (국립강원대학교 도시.환경방재공학전공) ;
  • 채수권 (을지대학교 보건환경안전학과)
  • Received : 2018.10.12
  • Accepted : 2018.11.13
  • Published : 2018.12.01
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Abstract

In this paper, in order to evaluate the impact of future climate change in North Korea, we collected the climate data of each station in North Korea provided by WMO and expanded the lack of time series data. Using the RCP climate change scenario, And the impact of climate change on disasters using local vulnerability to disasters in the event of a disaster. In order to evaluate this, the 11 cities in North Korea were evaluated for Design Rainfall Load, human risk index (HRI), and disaster impact index (DII) at each stage. As a result, Jaffe increased from C grade to B grade in the Future 1 period. At Future 2, North Hwanghae proved to be dangerous as it was, and Gangwon-do and Hwanghae-do provincial grade rose to C grade. In the case of Future 3, Pyongyang City dropped from C grade to D grade, Hamgyong and Gyeongsang City descend from B grade to C grade, Gangwon-do and Jagangdo descend from C grade to D grade and Pyongyang city descend from C grade to D grade. Respectively.

논문에서는 북한지역에서의 미래 기후변화에 따른 재해영향 정도를 평가하기 위해 WMO에서 제공하고 있는 북한지역의 각 관측소별 기후자료를 수집하여 북한의 시계열자료를 수집하였고, RCP기후변화시나리오를 이용하여 북한에서의 기후변화의 변동성 및 이로 인한 재해가 발생되었을 때 지역의 재해 취약성을 이용하여 기후변화가 재해에 미치는 영향을 평가하였다. 이를 평가하기 위해 북한의 11개 행정구역을 대상으로 각 단계별로 설계강우부하, 인간위험지수(Human Risk Index; HRI), 재해영향지수(Disaster Impact Index; DII)에 대해 평가를 수행하였다. 그 결과 Future 1기간일 때 자강도가 보통(C등급)에서 위험(B등급)으로 상승했다. Future 2일때 황해북도는 그대로 위험하다고 나타났고 강원도와 황해북도의 등급이 보통(C등급)으로 상승했다. Future 3의 경우 평양시가 보통(C등급)에서 안전(D등급)으로 하강하였으며, 함경남도와 개성시가 위험(B등급)에서 보통(C등급)으로 하강, 강원도, 자강도가 보통(C등급)에서 안전(D등급)으로 하강, 평양시가 보통(C등급)에서 안전(D등급)으로 하강하리라 전망되었다.

Keywords

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Fig. 1. Research Flow Chart

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Fig. 2. Locations of the Weather Stations used in this Study

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Fig. 3. Temporal Downscaling of Climate Change Scenarios Through Dairy Generator Model (Pyungyang)

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Fig. 4. Design Rainfall Load in North Korea (Pyungyang)

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Fig. 5. Spatial Distribution of Design Rainfall Load

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Fig. 6. Spatial Distribution of Human Risk Index

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Fig. 7. Spatial Distribution of Disaster Impact Index

Table 1. Information of Weather Stations used in this Study

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Table 2. Classification of Disaster Impact Index

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Table 3. Population Ratio Status in North Korea

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Table 4. The Amount of Currency in North Korea

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Table 5. Change of DII of Disaster Impact Index using Climate Change Scenarios

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