응용통계연구 (The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics)

  • 제30권5호
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  • Pages.759-774
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  • 2017
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  • 1225-066X(pISSN)
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  • 2383-5818(eISSN)
한국통계학회 (The Korean Statistical Society)
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지진 관측자료를 기반으로 한 한반도 지진 발생 확률 예측

Forecasting probabilities of earthquake in Korea based on seismological data

  • Choi, Seowon (Department of Statistics, Seoul National University) ;
  • Jang, Woncheol (Department of Statistics, Seoul National University)
  • 투고 : 2017.08.14
  • 심사 : 2017.09.29
  • 발행 : 2017.10.31
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초록

2016년 9월 경주 지진 이후 원자력발전소, 고층 빌딩, 주택, 교량 등 우리 사회의 설비 자산들이 과연 지진으로부터 얼마나 안전한가, 앞으로 안정성을 담보하기 위해 어떤 정책을 펼쳐야 하는가에 대한 관심이 높아졌다. 본 논문에서는 한반도에서 발생한 역사지진 및 계기지진 목록을 데이터로 사용하여, 멱법칙 분포를 통해 한반도 지진 기록의 크기 분포를 설명하는 모수를 추정한다. 또한 추정한 모수를 바탕으로 미래에 한반도에서 일정 규모 이상의 지진이 발생할 확률을 계산한다. 한반도 미래 지진 발생 확률 계산 모형을 통해 지진 위험도를 파악하고자 하는 것이 본 논문의 목적이다.

Earthquake concerns have grown after a remarkable earthquake incident on September 12th, 2016 in Gyeongju, Korea. Earthquake forecasting is gaining in importance in order to guarantee infrastructure safety and develop protection policies. In this paper, we adopt a power-law distribution model to fit past earthquake occurrences in Korea with various historical and modern seismological records. We estimated power-law distribution parameters using empirical distributions and calculated the future probabilities for large earthquake events based on our model. We provide the probability that a future event has a larger magnitude than given levels, and the probability that a future event over certain levels will occur in a given period of time. This model contributes to the assessment of latent seismological risk in Korea by estimating future earthquake probabilities.

키워드

참고문헌

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