Journal of the Korean Geotechnical Society (한국지반공학회논문집)

Korean Geotechnical Society (한국지반공학회)
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Development of Fragility Curves for Seismic Stability Evaluation of Cut-slopes

지진에 대한 안전성 평가를 위한 깎기비탈면의 취약도 곡선 작성

  • Park, Noh-Seok (Geotechnical Department, Saman Corporation) ;
  • Cho, Sung-Eun (Dept. of Civil, Safety, and Environmental Engrg. & Construction Engrg. Research Institute, Hankyong National Univ.)
  • Received : 2017.03.28
  • Accepted : 2017.07.04
  • Published : 2017.07.31
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Abstract

There are uncertainties about the seismic load caused by seismic waves, which cannot be predicted due to the characteristics of the earthquake occurrence. Therefore, it is necessary to consider these uncertainties by probabilistic analysis. In this paper, procedures to develop a fragility curve that is a representative method to evaluate the safety of a structure by stochastic analysis were proposed for cut slopes. Fragility curve that considers uncertainties of soil shear strength parameters was prepared by Monte Carlo Simulation using pseudo static analysis. The fragility curve considering the uncertainty of the input ground motion was developed by performing time-history seismic analysis using selected 30 real ground input motions and the Newmark type displacement evaluation analysis. Fragility curves are represented as the cumulative probability distribution function with lognormal distribution by using the maximum likelihood estimation method.

지진파로 인하여 발생되는 지진하중은 발생 특성상 예측이 불가능한 불확실성이 존재한다. 또한 비탈면과 같은 지반구조물에는 지반정수의 불확실성이 존재한다. 따라서 이러한 불확실성들을 확률론적 해석으로 고려할 필요가 있다. 본 연구에서는 깎기비탈면에 대하여 확률론적 해석으로 구조물의 안전성을 평가하는 대표적인 방법인 취약도 곡선을 작성하는 방법을 제시하였다. 지반정수의 불확실성을 고려한 취약도 곡선은 Monte Carlo Simulation 기법을 이용해 유사정적 해석으로 작성하였다. 지진파의 불확실성을 고려한 취약도 곡선은 30개의 실제 발생한 지진파로 시간이력해석을 실시하여 Newmark-Type 변위 해석으로 작성하였으며, 취약도 곡선은 최대 우도 추정법을 이용하여 대수정규분포를 갖는 누적 확률분포 함수로 나타내었다.

Keywords

References

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