Journal of Korea Water Resources Association (한국수자원학회논문집)

Korea Water Resources Association (한국수자원학회)
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A selection of optimal method for bias-correction in Global Seasonal Forecast System version 5 (GloSea5)

전지구 계절예측시스템 GloSea5의 최적 편의보정기법 선정

  • Received : 2017.05.23
  • Accepted : 2017.06.26
  • Published : 2017.08.31
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Abstract

In order to utilize 6-month precipitation forecasts (6 months at maximum) of Global Seasonal Forecast System version 5 (GloSea5), which is being provided by KMA (Korea Meteorological Administration) since 2014, for water resources management as well as other applications, it is needed to correct the forecast model's quantitative bias against observations. This study evaluated applicability of bias-correction skill in GloSea5 and selected an optimal method among 11 techniques that include probabilistic distribution type based, parametric, and non-parametric bias-correction to fix GloSea5's bias in precipitation forecasts. Non-parametric bias-correction provided the most similar results with observed data compared to other techniques in hindcast for the past events, yet relatively generated some discrepancies in forecast. On the contrary, parametric bias-correction produced the most reliable results in both hindcast and forecast periods. The results of this study are expected to be applicable to various applications using seasonal forecast model such as water resources operation and management, hydropower, agriculture, etc.

2014년부터 기상청에서 현업으로 활용하고 있는 전지구 계절예측시스템 GloSea5의 최대 6개월 예측 강수량을 수자원 및 여러 응용분야에 활용하기 위해서는 예측모델이 가지는 관측자료와의 정량적인 편의를 보정할 필요가 있다. 본 연구에서는 GloSea5의 예측 강수량에서 나타나는 편의를 보정하기 위해 확률분포형을 활용한 편의보정기법, 매개변수 및 비매개변수적 편의보정기법 등 총 11개의 기법을 활용하여 계절예측모델의 적용성을 평가하고 최적의 편의보정기법을 선정하고자 하였다. 과거재현기간에 대한 편의보정 결과, 비매개변수적 편의보정기법이 다른 기법에 비해 가장 관측자료와 유사하게 보정하는 것으로 분석되었으나 예측기간에 대해서는 상대적으로 많은 이상치를 발생시켰다. 이와는 대조적으로 매개변수적 편의보정기법은 과거재현기간 및 예측기간 모두 안정된 결과를 보여주고 있음을 확인할 수 있었다. 본 연구의 결과는 수자원운영 및 관리, 수력, 농업 등 계절예측모델을 활용한 여러 응용분야에 적용이 가능할 것으로 기대된다.

Keywords

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