응용통계연구 (The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics)

  • 제30권3호
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  • Pages.417-426
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  • 2017
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  • 1225-066X(pISSN)
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  • 2383-5818(eISSN)
한국통계학회 (The Korean Statistical Society)
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국내 벚꽃 개화 및 단풍 시기에 대한 공간예측

A spatial prediction for the flowering and autumnal dates in Korea

  • Jin, Hyang Gon (Department of Statistics, Kyungpook National University) ;
  • Kim, Sang Wan (Department of Statistics, Kyungpook National University) ;
  • Kim, Yongku (Department of Statistics, Kyungpook National University)
  • 투고 : 2017.03.08
  • 심사 : 2017.04.03
  • 발행 : 2017.06.30
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초록

국내외적으로 벚꽃의 개화시기와 단풍 시작일에 대한 관련 연구가 많이 되어왔는데, 매해 기상청은 이들에 대하여 보도자료를 통하여 당해 연도 예측시기 및 전년도와의 차이를 발표하고 있다. 본 연구에서는 선형회귀모형을 통해서 이들의 개화시기 및 단풍시기에 영향을 줄 수 있는 월별 평균, 최저, 최고온도, 강수량 그리고 일조량 등과 같은 여러가지 기상변수를 확인하였고 관측되지 않은 지역에 대한 예측을 위해서 기존의 모형에 공간구조를 추가하여 분석하였다. 본 연구에서 제안된 모형을 2009년부터 2016년의 기상청 보도자료에 적용하였고 기존의 기상청 예측값과 비교하였다. 그리고 공간분석을 통해 한반도 전역의 벚꽃 개화시기와 단풍 시작일을 예측하였다.

It is important to predict the flowering dates of Japanese cherry and autumnal dates in Korea. Flowering date is decided by heating requirement with daily maximum and minimum temperature used to calculate the pre-determined heating requirements for flowering. Recent, changes in climate have impacted the flowering season of Japanese cherry in Korea. When compared with the current normal, the flowering of Japanese cherry is expected to be about 10 days earlier than in near future normal years. In this paper, we first consider a linear model based on meteorological data that predicts the flowering date and then incorporate a spatial structure into the model. Real data analysis indicates that the proposed approach provides more reasonable predicted dates.

키워드

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