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Development of the Train Dwell Time Model : Metering Strategy to Control Passenger Flows in the Congested Platform

승강장 혼잡관리를 위한 열차의 정차시간 예측모형

  • KIM, Hyun (Dept. of Railway Transport Research, The Korea Transport Institute) ;
  • Lee, Seon-Ha (Dept. of Urban and Transportation Engineering, Univ. of Kongju) ;
  • LIM, Guk-Hyun (Dept. of Railway Transport Research, The Korea Transport Institute)
  • Received : 2017.03.23
  • Accepted : 2017.04.18
  • Published : 2017.06.30

Abstract

In general, increasing train dwell time leads to increasing train service frequency, and it in turn contributes to increasing the congestion level of train and platform. Therefore, the studies on train dwell time have received growing attention in the perspective of scheduling train operation. This study develops a prediction model of train dwell time to enable train operators to mitigate platform congestion by metering passenger inflow at platform gate with respect to platform congestion levels in real-time. To estimate the prediction model, three types of independent variables were applied: number of passengers to get into train, number of passengers to get out of trains, and train weights, which are collectable in real-time. The explanatory power of the estimated model was 0.809, and all of the dependent variables were statistically significant at the 99%. As a result, this model can be available for the basis of on-time train service through platform gate metering, which is a strategy to manage passenger inflow at the platform.

열차 정차시간 증가는 열차 서비스 빈도를 감소시켜 열차와 승강장의 혼잡이 발생하게 된다. 그러므로 열차 정차시간(Train dwell time)에 관한 연구는 열차 운행 계획수립 관점에서 매우 중요하게 다루어 왔다. 본 논문은 계획된 정차시간을 준수할 수 있도록 승객의 유입을 관리하여 승강장 혼잡을 줄일 수 있는 전략들에 활용할 수 있는 실시간 열차 정차시간 예측모형을 개발하였다. 모형의 특징은 실시간으로 수집 가능한 승차인원, 하차인원, 그리고 열차의 중량 등 3가지 독립변수를 적용하였고, 모형의 설명력(${\bar{R^2}}=0.809$)이 대체적으로 정확한 결과를 보여주었다. 실시간 정차시간 모형은 열차가 계획된 정차시간을 준수하도록 승차 승객 수를 조정하는 게이트 미터링 전략에 활용될 수 있다.

Keywords

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