Asia-Pacific Journal of Business Venturing and Entrepreneurship (벤처창업연구)

The Korean Society of Business Venturing (한국벤처창업학회)
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Determinants of Investment or Speculative Grades

투자등급과 투기등급의 결정요인 분석

  • Kim, Seokchin (School of Business Administration, Kyungpook National University) ;
  • Jung, Se Jin (Graduate Student, School of Business Administration, Kyungpook National University) ;
  • Yim, Jeongdae (School of Business Administration, Kyungpook National University)
  • Received : 2017.01.11
  • Accepted : 2017.02.28
  • Published : 2017.02.28
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Abstract

This study investigates firm-specific financial variables that determine investment or speculative grades from the viewpoint of firms, which are one of the major stakeholders related to the credit rating. We employ an ordered probit model for our analysis with the sample data from 1999 to 2015 for listed firms in the Korean stock markets. For investment grades, operating margin, sales, market-to-book, dividend payment, capital expenditure ratio, and tangible asset ratio have a significantly positive impact on credit ratings. In the subsample for speculative grades, the coefficients of the dividend payment, retained earnings ratio, and capital expenditure ratio are significantly positive while short-term debt ratio and R&D expenditures have a significantly negative impact on credit ratings. For the analysis before and after 2009, when the Credit Information Use and Protection Act was strengthened after the global financial crisis, the coefficients of the capital expenditure ratio, cash ratio, and tangible asset ratio are significantly positive in the subsample for investment grades before 2009, but not significant after 2010. The coefficient of the long-term debt ratio is more significantly negative than that of the short-term debt ratio before 2009, for speculative grades, but short-term debt ratio has a more negative effect on ratings than long-term debt ratio after 2010. Surprisingly, the coefficient of the R&D expenditures is significantly negative in both investment and speculative grades since 2010. Our findings are inconsistent with the conjecture that the increase in R&D expenditures enhances the possibility of creating cash-flow by raising the investment growth opportunity, and thus affects positively the credit rating.

본 연구는 1999년부터 2015년까지 상장기업을 대상으로, 순위프로빗 모형을 이용하여 신용등급 관련 이해관계자 중 하나인 기업의 관점에서 신용등급에 영향을 미치는 요인을 투자등급과 투기등급으로 구분하여 분석하였다. 투자등급의 경우 영업이익률, 매출액, 시장가/장부가, 배당지급, 자본적 지출 비율, 유형자산 비율이 양(+)의 계수를, 장 단기 부채비율, 베타, 고유위험이 음(-)의 계수를 보였다. 투기등급의 경우 배당지급, 유보이익률, 자본적 지출 비율이 양(+)의 계수를, 장 단기 부채비율과 연구개발비가 음(-)의 계수를 가졌다. 글로벌금융위기 이후 "신용정보의 이용 및 보호에 관한 법률"이 강화된 2009년 전 후를 기준으로 분석한 결과, 투자등급에서 자본적 지출 비율, 현금비율, 유형자산 비율이 2009년 이전에는 양(+)의 계수를 보였으나 2010년 이후에는 유의하지 않았다. 투기등급의 경우 2009년 이전에 단기부채보다 장기부채가 더 유의한 음(-)의 계수를 보였으나 2010년 이후에는 장기부채보다 단기부채가 더 유의한 음(-)의 계수를 보였다. 흥미롭게도 연구개발비가 2010년 이후 투자등급과 투기등급 모두 유의한 음(-)의 계수를 보였다. 이는 연구개발에 대한 투자가 기업의 성장기회를 높여 더 많은 현금흐름을 창출하며 이것이 신용등급을 상승시킬 것이라는 선행연구와 일치하지 않는다.

Keywords

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