한국건축시공학회지 (Journal of the Korea Institute of Building Construction)

  • 제17권3호
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  • Pages.287-294
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  • 2017
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  • 1598-2033(pISSN)
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  • 2233-5706(eISSN)
한국건축시공학회 (The Korean Institute of Building Construction)
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확률론적 추정 개념을 적용한 건설 공사 현장의 사고원인별 리스크 정량화 연구

A Risk Quantification Study for Accident Causes on Building Construction Site by Applying Probabilistic Forecast Concept

  • Yu, Yeong-Jin (School of Architectural Engineering, University of Ulsan) ;
  • Son, Kiyoung (School of Architectural Engineering, University of Ulsan) ;
  • Kim, Taehui (Department of Architectural Engineering, Mokpo National University) ;
  • Kim, Ji-Myong (Construction Science Department, Texas A&M University)
  • 투고 : 2017.01.17
  • 심사 : 2017.05.08
  • 발행 : 2017.06.20
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초록

최근 건설프로젝트가 대형화 복잡화되어 감에 따라, 건설공사에서의 리스크 및 불확실성이 급증하고 있다. 증가하고 있는 건설 공사의 위험을 정량적으로 평가하고 관리 할 수 있는 모델 개발을 위해서는 위험 인자를 식별하고 위험인자의 발생 빈도와 심도를 계량화하는 연구가 우선되어야 한다. 이에 본 연구에서는 건설현장에서 발생한 사고 데이터를 기반으로 하여 위험요인의 확률분포 및 리스크 레벨별 위험의 발생 확률과 위험의 발생 빈도를 몬테카를로 기법을 통해 시뮬레이션하였다. 시뮬레이션을 통해 사고 원인의 확률 분포 및 사고 원인별 위험도를 분석하여 계량적 분석 결과를 도출하였다. 본 연구의 결과는 향후 정량적 위험관리모델 및 위험관리 연구를 위한 기초 자료가 될 것이다.

Recently the construction project is becoming large-sized, complicated, and modernize. This has increased the uncertainty of construction risk. Therefore, studies should be followed regarding scientifically identifying the risk factors, quantifying the frequency and severity of risk factors in order to develop a model that can quantitatively evaluate and manage the risk for response the increased risk in construction. To address the problem, this study analyze the probability distribution of risk causes, the probability of occurrence and frequency of the specific risk level through Monte Carlo simulation method based on the accident data caused at construction sites. In the end, this study derives quantitative analysis by analyzing the amount of risk and probability distributions of accident causes. The results of this study will be a basis for future quantitative risk management models and risk management research.

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