Information Systems Review (경영정보학연구)

The Korea Society of Management Information Systems (한국경영정보학회)
권호 표지
DOI QR코드

DOI QR Code

Industrial Economic Growth and IT Investment: Is Economic Growth an Effect of IT Investment, or a Determinant of Decision-making for IT Investment

산업의 경제 성장과 IT 투자: 경제 성장은 IT 투자의 효과인가, 아니면 IT 투자 결정의 요인인가?

  • Sangho Lee (Department of IT Management, Sun Moon University) ;
  • Young U. Ryu (Jindal School of Management, University of Texas at Dallas)
  • 이상호 (선문대학교 IT경영학과) ;
  • 유영욱
  • Received : 2016.10.31
  • Accepted : 2017.03.31
  • Published : 2017.03.31
Download PDF
⟨ Previous Next ⟩

Abstract

Most studies based on production function theory have concluded that economic growth is a result of information technology (IT) capital use. However, some studies have indicated that economic growth is a determinant of IT investment. To determine if these results also hold at the industry level, we use the Granger causality test to analyze bidirectional causality with industry-level data for 1977~2007 from the United States. The results generally reveal that IT investment causes economic growth in many industries under the concept of Granger causality, that economic growth causes IT investment in some industries, and that IT investment is not associated with economic growth in some industries. In the country-level time-series data made by summing up the IT capital and gross output for each industry, the results do not show any causality between IT investment and economic growth. However, they show bi-directional causality between IT investment and economic growth in the panel data. These results may be a source of IT productivity paradox.

생산함수이론을 이용하는 대부분의 연구는 IT활용의 결과로 경제 성장을 보고 있다. 그러나 몇몇 연구들은 경제 성장을 IT 투자의 결정요인으로 보고 있다. 이러한 결과가 산업 수준에서도 유효한지를 조사하기 위하여, 이 연구는 미국의 1997년부터 2007년까지의 산업 자료를 이용하여 양방향 인과성 분석이 가능한 그레인저 인과성 분석을 수행하였다. 많은 산업에서 IT 투자는 경제 성장에 영향을 주었으며, 몇몇 산업에서 경제 성장이 IT 투자에 영향을 주었으며, 몇몇 산업에서는 IT 투자와 경제 성장은 아무런 영향 관계가 없었다. 산업 수준의 IT자본과 산업총생산을 국가 수준으로 합산한 시계열 자료를 이용한 분석에서는 IT 투자와 경제 성장은 어떠한 영향 관계가 없었으나, 산업 특성과 시간 특성을 고려하는 산업 수준의 패널 자료를 이용한 분석에서는 양방향 인과 관계가 발견되었다. 이러한 결과는 IT 생산성 역설의 이유였을 수도 있다.

Keywords

Acknowledgement

이 논문은 2013년도 정부(교육부)의 재원으로 한국연구재단의 지원을 받아 연구되었음(NRF-2013S1A5A8022579).

References

  1. 김수경, 이상용, "한국의 ICT산업의 발전과 고용 간의 인과관계에 관한 실증적 분석", Information Systems Review, 제16권, 제2호, 2014, pp. 77-95. 
  2. 이상호, 김성희, "미국의 정보기술 투자와 경제적 성과 사이의 인과성 연구", 경영정보학연구, 제16권, 제2호, 2006, pp. 111-122. 
  3. 이상호, J. Y. Xiang, 김재경, "중국과 한국 기업의 정보기술 투자와 기업 성과의 관계에 대한 실증 연구", Information Systems Review, 제11권, 제3호, 2009, pp. 169-189. 
  4. Baily, M. N. and R. E. Hall, "Comments and discussion", Brookings Paper on Economic Activity, Vol.2002, No.1, 2002, pp. 182-193. 
  5. Bharadwaj, A. S., "A Resource-based perspective on information technology capability and firm performance: An empirical investigation", MIS Quarterly, Vol.24, No.1, 2000, pp. 169-196. 
  6. Brynjolfsson, E. and L. M. Hitt, "Computing productivity: Firm-level evidence", Review of Economics and Statistics, Vol.85, No.4, 2003, pp. 793-808. 
  7. Brynjolfsson, E. and L. M. Hitt, "Beyond computation: Information technology, organizational transformation and business performance", Journal of Economic Perspective, Vol.14, No.4, 2000, pp. 23-48. 
  8. Carr, N. G., "IT doesn't matter", Harvard Business Review, Vol.81, No.5, 2003, pp. 41-49. 
  9. Chae, H. -C., C. E. Koh, and V. R. Prybutok, "Information technology capability and firm performance: Contradictory findings and their possible causes", MIS Quarterly, Vol.38, No.1, 2014, pp. 305-326. 
  10. Cheng, Z. J. and B. R. Nault, "Industry level supplier-driven IT spillovers", Management Science, Vol.53, No.8, 2007, pp. 1199-1216. 
  11. Dedrick, J., V. Gurbaxani, and K. L. Kraemer, "Information technology and economic performance: A critical review of the empirical evidence", ACM Computing Survey, Vol.35, No.1, 2003, pp. 1-28. 
  12. Dewan, S. and K. L. Kraemer, "Information technology and productivity: Evidence from country-level data", Management Science, Vol.46, No.4, 2000, pp. 548-562. 
  13. Dutta, A., "Telecommunications and economic activity: An analysis of Granger causality", Journal of Management Information Systems, Vol.17, No.4, 2001, pp. 71-95. 
  14. Gefen, D., D. W. Straub, and M.-C. Boudreau, "Structural equation modeling and regression: Guidelines for research practice", Communications of the Association for Information Systems, Vol.4, No.7, 2000, pp. 1-77. 
  15. Gordon, R. J., "Does the 'New Economy' measure up to the great inventions of the past?", Journal of Economic Perspectives, Vol.14, No.4, 2000, pp. 49-74. 
  16. Granger, C. W. J., "Investigating causal relations by econometric models and cross-spectral methods", Econometrica, Vol.37, No.3, 1969, pp. 424-438. 
  17. Gujarati, D. N., Basic Econometrics, 4th ed., McGraw-Hill, New York, NY, 2003. 
  18. Gurbaxani, V., "The demand for information technology capital: An empirical analysis", Decision Support Systems, Vol.8, No.5, 1992, pp. 387-403. 
  19. Hair, J. F., Jr., R. E. Anderson, R. L. Tatham, and W. C. Black, Multivariate Data Analysis, 5th ed., Prentice-Hall, Upper Saddle River, NJ, 1998. 
  20. Hu, Q. and J .J. Quan, "Evaluating the impact of IT investments on productivity: A causal analysis of industry level", International Journal of Information Management, Vol.25, No.1, 2005, pp. 39-53. 
  21. Hu, Q. and J. J. Quan, "The institutionalization of IT budgeting: Empirical evidence from the financial sector", Information Resources Management Journal, Vol.19, No.1, 2006, pp. 84-97. 
  22. Hu, Q. and R. Plant, "An empirical study of the casual relationship between IT investment and firm performance", Information Resources Management Journal, Vol.14, No.3, 2001, pp. 15-26. 
  23. Kim, J. K., J. Y. Xiang, and S. Lee, "The impact of IT investment on firm performance in China: An empirical investigation of the Chinese electronics industry", Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Vol.76, No.5, 2009, pp. 678-687. 
  24. Kobelsky, K., V. J. Richardson, R. E. Smith, and R. W. Zmud, "Determinants and consequences of firm information technology budgets", Accounting Review, Vol.83, No.4, 2008, pp. 957-995. 
  25. Kohli, R., S. Devaraj, and T. T. Ow, "Does information technology influence a firm's market value? A case of non-publicly traded healthcare firms", MIS Quarterly, Vol.36, No.4, 2012, pp. 1145-1163. 
  26. Laudon, K. C. and J. P. Laudon, Management Information Systems, 14th ed, Pearson Education Limited, Harlow, Essex, England, 2016. 
  27. Lee, S. and S. H. Kim, "A lag effect of IT investment on firm performance", Information Resources Management Journal, Vol.19, No.1, 2006, pp. 43-69. 
  28. Lee, S. Y. T., R. Gholami, and T. Y. Tong, "Time series analysis in the assessment of ICT impact at the aggregate level: Lessons and implications for the new economy", Information and Management, Vol.42, No.7, 2005, pp. 1009-1022. 
  29. Lee, S., J. Y. Xiang, and J. K. Kim, "Information technology and productivity: Empirical evidence from the Chinese electronics industry", Information and Management, Vol.48, No.2-3, 2011, pp. 79-87. 
  30. Lee, S., Y. U. Ryu, and J. K. Kim, "IT investment and economic performance growth: A causality analysis over multiple countries", 2008 Workshop on Information Technologies and Systems (WITS 2008), pp. 230-235. 
  31. Mahmood, M. A. and G. J. Mann, "Measuring the organizational impact of information technology investment: An exploratory study", Journal of Management Information Systems, Vol.10, No.1, 1993, pp. 97-122. 
  32. Melville, N., K. L. Kraemer, and V. Gurbaxani, "Review: Information technology and organizational performance: An integrative model of IT business value", MIS Quarterly, Vol.28, No.2, 2004, pp. 283-322. 
  33. Mithas, S. and R. T. Rust, "How information technology strategy and investments influence firm performance: Conjecture and empirical evidence", MIS Quarterly, Vol.40, No.1, 2016, pp. 223-245. 
  34. Mitra, S., "Information technology as an enabler of growth in firms: An empirical assessment", Journal of Management Information Systems, Vol.22, No.2, 2005, pp. 279-300. 
  35. Park, J., H.-H. Shin, and S. K. Shin, "The intensity and externality effects of information technology investments on national productivity growth", IEEE Transactions on Engineering Management, Vol.54, No.4, 2007, pp. 716-728. 
  36. Prattipati, S. N. and M. O. Mensah, "Information systems variables and management productivity", Information and Management, Vol.33, No.1, 1997, pp. 33-43. 
  37. Saunders, A. and E. Brynjolfsson, "Valuing information technology related intangible assets", MIS Quarterly, Vol.40, No.1, 2016, pp. 83-110. 
  38. Shih, E., K. L. Kraemer, and J. Dedrick, "Determinants of country-level investment in information technology", Management Science, Vol.53, No.3, 2007, pp. 521-528. 
  39. Sims, C. A., "Money, income, and causality", American Economic Review, Vol.62, No.4, 1972, 540-552. 
  40. Tang, C. F. and E. C. Tan, "Does tourism effectively stimulate Malaysia's economic growth?", Tourism Management, Vol.46, 2015, pp. 158-163. 
  41. Yoo, S.-H. and S.-J. Kwak, "Information technology and economic development in Korea: A causal study", International Journal of Technology Management, Vol.27, No.1, 2004, pp. 57-67.