Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society (한국산학기술학회논문지)

The Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society (한국산학기술학회)
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Precipitation-Streamflow Elasticity analysis of Nakdong River Based on RCP 4.5 Climate Change Scenario

RCP 4.5 기후변화 시나리오 기반의 낙동강 유역의 강우-유출 탄성도 분석

  • Jang, Young-su (Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Pusan National University) ;
  • Park, Jae-Rock (Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Pusan National University) ;
  • Shin, Hyun-suk (Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Pusan National University)
  • 장영수 (부산대학교 사회환경시스템공학과) ;
  • 박재록 (부산대학교 사회환경시스템공학과) ;
  • 신현석 (부산대학교 사회환경시스템공학과)
  • Received : 2017.10.19
  • Accepted : 2017.12.08
  • Published : 2017.12.31
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Abstract

Climate change affects the natural ecosystem and human socioeconomic activities by acting on various constituents such as the atmospheric, oceanic, biological, and land constituents of the climate. Predicting the impacts of ongoing climate change will be an important factor in adapting to the climate of the future. In this study, precipitation-streamflow elasticity analysis of the Nakdong River area was conducted using the RCP 4.5 scenario developed by the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change). Precipitation and streamflow in the Nakdong River area was analyzed using monthly, seasonal, and yearly data. Results found that the climate would become very humid climate by 2100. Results of this study can be applied to adaptation of climate change, management of water resources and efficient utilization of hydraulic structures.

기후 변화는 기후를 구성하는 대기, 해양, 생물, 육지 등의 다양한 구성 요소에 작용하여 자연 생태계와 인간의 사회 경제 활동에 큰 영향을 미친다. 기후 변화의 영향을 예측하고 방어대책을 마련하는 것은 변화된 기후에 적응하기 위한 중요한 연구가 될 것이다. 본 연구에서는 IPCC(Intergovermental Panel on Climate Change)에서 개발된 RCP 4.5 시나리오를 이용한 낙동강 권역의 강우-유출 탄성도 분석을 실시하였다. 제어적분 200년의 남한 상세 기후변화 시나리오를 수집하여 낙동강 권역에 대해 강우량을 산정하고, Tank 모형을 통해 산정된 유출량을 2가지 시나리오(계절, 연별)로 추출하여 탄성도 분석을 실시하였다. 본 연구의 결과를 통해 우리나라의 기후가 2100년까지 매우 습한 형태 초기 1.129 (0.851~1.523), 중기 1.075(0.756~1.302), 후기 1.043(0.882~1.325)의 기후로 변해 갈 것이라고 예상 하였다. 본 연구의 결과를 통해 기후 변화에 따른 수자원 관리 및 효율적인 수리구조물 적용 방안 및 변화된 기후에 대한 빠른 적응에 대한 연구에 활용 할 수 있을 것이다.

Keywords

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