Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology (한국농림기상학회지)

Korean Society of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology (한국농림기상학회)
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Projection of Potential Cultivation Region of Satsuma Mandarin and 'Shiranuhi' Mandarin Hybrid Based on RCP 8.5 Emission Scenario

RCP 8.5 기후변화시나리오에 근거한 온주밀감과 '부지화'의 잠재적 재배지 변화 예측

  • Moon, Young-Eel (Citrus Research Institute, National Institute of Horticultural & Herbal Science, RDA) ;
  • Kang, Seok-Beom (Citrus Research Institute, National Institute of Horticultural & Herbal Science, RDA) ;
  • Lee, Hyejin (Citrus Research Institute, National Institute of Horticultural & Herbal Science, RDA) ;
  • Choi, Young-Hun (Citrus Research Institute, National Institute of Horticultural & Herbal Science, RDA) ;
  • Son, In-Chang (Planning and Coordination Division, National Institute of Horticultural & Herbal Science, RDA) ;
  • Lee, Dong-Hoon (Planning and Coordination Division, National Institute of Horticultural & Herbal Science, RDA) ;
  • Kim, Sung-Ki (Epinet Corporation) ;
  • An, Moon-Il (Epinet Corporation)
  • 문영일 (농촌진흥청 국립원예특작과학원 감귤연구소) ;
  • 강석범 (농촌진흥청 국립원예특작과학원 감귤연구소) ;
  • 이혜진 (농촌진흥청 국립원예특작과학원 감귤연구소) ;
  • 최영훈 (농촌진흥청 국립원예특작과학원 감귤연구소) ;
  • 손인창 (농촌진흥청 국립원예특작과학원 기획조정과) ;
  • 이동훈 (농촌진흥청 국립원예특작과학원 기획조정과) ;
  • 김성기 ((주)에피넷) ;
  • 안문일 ((주)에피넷)
  • Received : 2017.06.27
  • Accepted : 2017.10.18
  • Published : 2017.12.30
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Abstract

The potential change of the cultivation area of main citrus cultivars, satsuma mandarin (Citrus unshiu Marc.) and 'Shiranuhi' mandarin hybrid [(Citrus unshiu ${\times}$ C. sinensis) ${\times}$ C. reticulata] were determined with base year (1981 to 2010) to 2090. The meteorological data provided by the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA), and the digital agricultural climate map of 30m-solution based on the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 8.5 was used for projection of potential cultivation area. As a result, the potential suitable region of satsuma mandarin included almost Jeju region during base year. At the 2030s, the potential suitable region of satsuma mandarin increased and the cultivable region also increased focused on the coast region of Jeonnam province. From the 2060s, the suitable area spread out to mountain area of Jeju, Jeonnam, Gyeongnam, and the coast region of Kangwon, and the cultivable region expanded to the area of Gyeongbuk, Chungnam, and Jeonbuk. In the case of 'Shiranuhi' mandarin hybrid, the suitable region included only the partial coast area of Jeju, and cultivable area covered Jeju region and the partial southern coast of Jeonnam during the standard period. At the 2030s, the suitable region of 'Shiranuhi' included the current cultivation area of satsuma mandarin, and the cultivable region moved to northward by the partial southern coast region. At the 2090s, the slightly increased suitable region covered all Jeju regions, Jeonnam, Gyeongnam, and the coast area of Kangwon, and the cultivable region proceeded northward focusing on the coastline. In conclusion, the prediction of the potential land for citrus cultivation based on the RCP 8.5 showed that the suitable region of satsuma mandarin decreased, whereas that of cultivation of 'Shiranuhi' increased. Moreover, it was forecasted that citrus cultivation area would extend to Kangwon region at the end of the $21^{st}$ century.

감귤 중 우리나라에서 가장 많은 면적을 차지하는 온주밀감(Citrus unshiu Marc.)과 '부지화'[Shiranuhi, (Citrus unshiu ${\times}$ C. sinensis) ${\times}$ C. reticulata]를 대상으로 1981년부터 2010년까지를 기준년도로 하여 2090년까지 잠재적 재배지 변화를 예측하였다. 재배지 변화는 국가농림기상센터와 기상청에서 제공하는 기상자료와 RCP 8.5 기후변화시나리오를 바탕으로 제작된 30m 해상도를 가진 농업용전자기후도를 이용하였다. 온주밀감의 잠재적 재배적지는 기준년도에서는 대부분 제주 지역이 해당되었으며, 재배가능지는 제주 동부지역과 남해안 일부지역이 포함되었다. 2030년대에는 온주밀감 재배적지는 증가하였으며 재배가능지도 전남지역의 해안 지역을 중심으로 증가하였다. 2060년대부터는 재배적지는 제주 산간과 전남과 경남, 강원도 해안지역으로 점차 증가하고 재배가능지도 경북, 충남, 전북 지역까지 확대되었다. '부지화' 감귤인 경우 기준년도에서 재배적지는 제주 해안 지역 일부만 포함되었으며 재배가능지는 제주지역과 전남 남해안 일부 지역만 해당되었다. 2030년대 재배적지는 현재 온주밀감 재배지가 해당되었으며 재배가능지도 남해안 일부 지역까지 북상하였다. 2090년대에는 재배적지가 점점 증가하여 제주지역 전체와 전남, 경남, 강원도 해안지역이 재배적지가 되었으며 재배가능지도 점점 해안가를 중심으로 북상하였다. 이상의 결과를 종합하여 RCP 8.5 기후변화시나리오를 근거로 감귤의 재배적지변화를 예측해 본 결과 온주밀감재배적지는 감소하고 '부지화' 감귤의 재배적지는 증가하는 것으로 나타났으며, 21세기 말에는 강원도 지역까지 감귤이 재배될 것으로 예측되었다.

Keywords

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