DOI QR코드

DOI QR Code

On the origin of exponential growth in induced earthquakes in Groningen

  • van Putten, Maurice H.P.M. (Physics and Astronomy, Sejong University) ;
  • van Putten, Anton F.P. (AnMar Research Laboratories B.V.) ;
  • van Putten, Michael J.A.M. (Clinical Neurophysiology, Medisch Spectrum Twente and University of Twente)
  • 투고 : 2016.06.13
  • 심사 : 2016.10.19
  • 발행 : 2016.11.25

초록

The Groningen gas field shows exponential growth in earthquake event counts around a magnitude M1 with a doubling time of 6-9 years since 2001. This behavior is identified with dimensionless curvature in land subsidence, which has been evolving at a constant rate over the last few decades essentially uncorrelated to gas production. We demonstrate our mechanism by a tabletop crack formation experiment. The observed skewed distribution of event magnitudes is matched by that of maxima of event clusters with a normal distribution. It predicts about one event < M5 per day in 2025, pointing to increasing stress to human living conditions.

키워드

과제정보

연구 과제 주관 기관 : Korean National Research Foundation

참고문헌

  1. Aki, K. (1967), "Scaling law of seismic spectra", J. Geophys. Res., 72(4), 1217-1231. https://doi.org/10.1029/JZ072i004p01217
  2. Aki, K. and Richards, P.G.(1980), Quantitative Seismology, Theory and Methods, W.H. Freeman and Co. San Francisco, CA, USA.
  3. Anderson, J.G. (2003), in Int. Handbook of Earthquake & Engineering Seismology, Part 2, W.H.K. Lee, H. Kanamori, P. Jennings an C. Kisslinger (eds.), Ch. 57, p.937.
  4. Bakun, W.H., Aagaard, B., Dost, B., Ellsworth, W.L., Hardebeck, J.L., Harris, R.A. and Michael, A.J. (2005), "Implications for prediction and hazard assessment from the 2004 Parkfield earthquake", Nature, 437(7061), 969-974. https://doi.org/10.1038/nature04067
  5. Brodsky, E.E. and Lajpote, L.J. (2013), "Salton sea geothermal field anthropogenic seismicity rates and operational parameters at the salton sea geothermal field", Science, 341(6145), 543-546. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1239213
  6. Bune, J.N. (1970), "Tectonic stress and the spectra of seismic shear waves from earthquakes", J. Geophys. Res., 75(26), 4997-5009. https://doi.org/10.1029/JB075i026p04997
  7. Coulomb, C.A. (1776), "Essai sur une application des regles des maximis et minimis a quelques problames de statique relatifs a l'architecture", Mem. Acad. Roy. Div. Sav., 7, 343-387.
  8. Davies, R.J., Mathias, S.A., Noss, J., Hustof, S. and Newport, L. (2012), "Hydraulic fractures: How far can they go?", Marine and Petrol. Geol., 37(1), 1-6. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.marpetgeo.2012.04.001
  9. De Kam, G. (2014), "Fear of earthquakes risen sharply among inhabitants of earthquake zone", http://www.rug.nl/news-and-events/news/archief2014/nieuwsberichten/angst-voor-aardbevingen-onderinwoners-aardbevingsgebied-sterk-gestegen?lang=en.
  10. De Waard, P. (2014), De Volkskrant, January 14.
  11. Dost, B., Caccavale, M., van Eck, T. and Kraaijpoel, D. (2013), "KNMI Report on expected PGV and PGA values for induced earthquakes", KNMI, The Netherlands.
  12. Grillon, C., Baas, J.P., Lissek, S., Smith, K. and Milstein, J. (2004), "Anxious responses to predictable and unpredictable aversive events", Behav. Neuroscience, 118(5), 916-924. https://doi.org/10.1037/0735-7044.118.5.916
  13. Gutenberg, B. and Richter, C.F. (1944), "Frequency of earthquakes in California", Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am., 34(4), 185-188 .
  14. Gutenberg, B. and Richter, C.F. (1954), Seismicity of the Earth and Associated Phenomena, Princeton University Press, Princeton, NJ, USA.
  15. Ellsworth, W.L. (2013), "Injection-induced earthquakes", Science, 341(6142), 142-147.
  16. Evans, K.F., Zappone, A., Kraft, T., Deichmann, N. and Moia, F. (2012), "A survey of the induced seismic responses to fluid injection in geothermal and CO2 reservoirs in Europe", Geothermics, 41, 30-54. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geothermics.2011.08.002
  17. Fonteyne, R., Vervliet, B., Hermans, D., Baeyens, F. and Vansteenwegen, D. (2009), "Reducing chronic anxiety by making the threatening event predictable: An experimental approach", Behav. Res. and Therapy, 47(10), 830-839. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.brat.2009.06.011
  18. Frankel, A.J. (1991), "High-frequency spectral falloff of earthquakes, fractal dimension of complex rupture, b value, and the scaling of strength on faults", Geophys. Res., 96, 6291-6302. https://doi.org/10.1029/91JB00237
  19. Frohlich, C. (2012), "Two-year survey comparing earthquake activity and injection-well locations in the Barnett Shale, Texas", PNAS, 109(35), 12934-12938.
  20. Halldorsson, B., Olafsson, S., Snaebjornsson, J.Th., Sigurosson, S.U., Rupakhety, R. and Sigbjornsson, R. (2012), "On the effects of induced earthquakes due to fluid injection at hellisheidi geothermal power plant, Iceland", Proceeding of the 15th WCEE, Lissabon, Portugal.
  21. Hough, S.E. (2013), "Spatial variability of "Did you feel it" intensity data: insights into sampling biases in historical earthquake intensity distributions", Bull. Seism. Soc. Am., 103(5), 2767-2781. https://doi.org/10.1785/0120120285
  22. Hubbert, M.K. and Rubey, W.W. (1959), "Role of fluid pressure in mechanics of overthrust faulting I. Mechanics of fluid-filled porous solids and its application to overthrust faulting", Geol. Surv. Bull., 70(2), 115-166. https://doi.org/10.1130/0016-7606(1959)70[115:ROFPIM]2.0.CO;2
  23. Ishimoto, M. and Lida, K. (1939), "Observations sur les seismes enregistres par le microsismographe construit dermement", Bull. Earthquake Res. Inst., Tokyo Univ., 17, 443-478.
  24. Kanamori, H. and Anderson, L. (1975), "Theoretical basis of some empirical relations in seismology", Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am., 65(5), 1073-1095.
  25. Keranen, K.M., Weingarten, M., Abers, G.A., Bekins, B.A. and Ge, S. (2014), "Sharp increase in central Oklahoma seismicity since 2008 induced by massive wastewater injection", Science, 345(6195), 448-451. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1255802
  26. Lacazette, A. and Geiser, P. (2013), "A new method of neostress determination from passive seismic data", Marine and Petrolium Geology, 43, 516-518. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.marpetgeo.2012.12.008
  27. Nederlandse Aardolie Maatschappij (2013), "Technical Addendum to the Winningsplan Groningen, Subsidence, Induced Earthquakes and Seismic Hazard Analysis in the Groningen Field," http://www.rijksoverheid.nl/documenten-en-publicaties/rapporten/2014/01/17/bijlage-1-analyse-oververzakkingen-geinduceerde-aardbevingen-en-seismische-risico-s.html, NAM, The Netherlands.
  28. Nicholson, C. and Wesson, R.L. (1990), "Earthquake hazard associated with deep well injection", US Geol. Surv. Bull., 1951 pubs.usgs.gov/bul/1951/report.pdf.
  29. Peterson, M.D., Frankel, A.D., Harmsen, S.C., Mueller, C.S., Haller, K.M. and Wheeler, R.L., et al. (2008), US Geol. Surv. Open-File Rep., 2008-1128.
  30. Rayleigh, C.B., Healy, J.H. and Bredehoeft, J.D. (1976), "An experiment in earthquake control at Rangely, Colorado", Science, 191, 1230-1237. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.191.4233.1230
  31. Scholz, C.H. (1968), "The frequency-magnitude relation of microfracturing in rock and its relation to earthquakes", Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am., 58(1), 399-415.
  32. Schorlemmer, D., Wiemer, S. and Wyss, M. (2005), "Variations in earthquake-size distribution across different stress regimes", Nature, 437(7058), 539-542. https://doi.org/10.1038/nature04094
  33. van Eck, T., Goutbeek, F., Haak, H. and Dost, B. (2006), "Seismic hazard due to small-magnitude, shallowsource, induced earthquakes in The Netherlands," Eng. Geol., 87(1), 105-121. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enggeo.2006.06.005
  34. van Putten, M.H.P.M., Guidorzi, C. and Frontera, F. (2016), "Broadband turbulent spectra in gamma-ray burst light curves", Ap. J., 786(2), 146-154.
  35. van Putten, M.H.P.M. (2016), "Directed searches for broadband extended gravitational-wave emission in nearby energetic core-collapse supernovae", Ap. J., 819(2), 169-181. https://doi.org/10.3847/0004-637X/819/2/169
  36. Weingarten, M., Ge, S., Godt, J.W., Bekins, B.A. and Rubinstein, J.L. (2015), "High-rate injection is associated with the increase in U.S. mid-continent seismicity", Science, 348(6241), 1336-1340. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aab1345

피인용 문헌

  1. Natural time and nowcasting induced seismicity at the Groningen gas field in the Netherlands vol.215, pp.2, 2018, https://doi.org/10.1093/gji/ggy315